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[Douglas]

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with highest chance of seeing a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 16th and Thursday March 19th, but as has been the case for too long a time the summation values for the other days this coming week are uncomfortably elevated, so a turn of consequences any day would not be a big surprise.

 

Last week the peak of the summation on Tuesday March 10th tagged a turn and the high for the week.

 

 

Fed Wednesday March 18th did not bubble to the top of the turn summation spreadsheet, but if the market plunges for some reason early in the week, the Fed whose apparent primary mission is kiting the S&P will almost certainly act and slash rates and increase the already large QE probably driving a market turn if not Wednesday then in the turn window on Thursday.  If the market behaves going into the Fed meeting, I suppose consensus forecast that they will sit on their hands and do nothing is probably the best bet which probably won't move the market that much.

 

As I believe Mark noted in an earlier post sentiment is getting downright bearish which could support a humdinger of a rally if there is even an inkling of good news. The first chart below is an average of the weekly sentiment surveys' bull percentages that I track, and the second plot is the CNN market indicator both of which are starting to get interesting from a bull's point of view.

 

 

 

Crude did manage to hit the $110/B target that I forecast in last week's post, but could not hold the price till the close.  Hard to know which way the wind will blow on oil given the daily barrage of news.

 

And finally despite scouring the skies diligently these last several days, I have not spotted any obvious sufficiently large black swans which could drive the market down in this crash risk window.  There are still a few days left before the window closes this coming Thursday, but as has been the case these last several years all I have gotten so far for my efforts peering skyward is pigeon crap in my eyes. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

For some light comic relief this Monday morning I present my latest EWave prognostications for the DJIA  below.  The first chart shows the move dating from the tariff panic low of April of 2025.  It assumes this move is complete with the structure of the green bracket area currently under development hopefully becoming more clear over the next few weeks.  Five clear waves down will increase the odds that a top of some degree is in place.

 

 

The next chart below shows a slightly longer time frame stretching from the fall 2022 low.  I assume that the alternatives in the mauve highest order count shown will be determined by where we are in the Fourth Turning, which I understand from listening to Neil Howe videos on YouTube, should bottom in the early 2030's.  The mauve 5 count assumes that the denouement of this Fourth Turning begins now and will be drawn out, extending for six or seven years.  The more optimistic mauve 3 count assumes a short sharp ending affair with the peak in the DJIA of this Fourth Turning coming out in the future somewhere in the next few years then a quicker drop into the low of the Fourth Turning.  Of course given my abysmal EWave counting skills, the chance of either of these being correct is probably snake's belly low.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 16 March 2026 - 03:46 AM.