2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

The DJIA.  If the DJIA plunges below the 200 day moving average where it is currently sitting and starts dropping precipitously, I predict the POTUS will declare victory and end hostilities.  The best government that money can buy is solely focused on the top of the "K".  Any sign that the upper tranche is about to suffer will bring immediate relief.   Same with the Fed which is expected to stand pat today.  If the DJIA plunges, expect rate cuts and more QE goodies to be rolled out ASAP regardless of inflation.  They'll just let the BLS numbers fudgers sort that out.  Call me jaded, but that's my two cents.  Worth every penny you paid for it. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

Well, the DJIA daily 200 SMA didn't hold, but today wasn't really a plunge.  There was only a small gap down on the daily chart and while 768 DOW points sounds like a lot, these days it's pretty common with 6 others as big or bigger shown below in the last 6 months.  No, in a true  plunge your hair stands on end and your mouth puckers, there are screams of terror on CNBC stock pumping shows, and the DJIA is down several thousand points with a scary big gap to get it started.  That's a plunge.  That will get the POTUS attention.  Nothing so fearsome yet, so the war drags on. 

 

My system's crash risk window ends tomorrow, but I did note that it's distorted this time around, so maybe it's still in play.  Who knows?  By the book the risk window closes tomorrow.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 18 March 2026 - 05:15 PM.

[pdx5]

Exactly right. 1.6% drop is far away from a plunge, crash, collapse, Armageddon, you name it. I am old enough to remember double digit percent drops in a single day.