According to my turn probability summation system, the window with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA stretches from Wednesday April 8th thru the morning of Thursday April 9th. The summation value is also somewhat abnormally elevated on Friday April the 10th, so some pre-weekend fireworks can't be ruled out especially given the release of inflation data that morning.
Last week the Monday March 30th turn window was a bullseye tagging the double bottom low right before the big rally. The second highest summation reading on Thursday the 2nd may have caught a correction low in the uptrend which will be determined by trading on Monday the 6th.
Even my EWave count is still in tact a week after I posted it here which anyone who has read my posts before can tell you is a miracle. The big question is of course what is unfolding now. In my dark view of things that would be a wave two or at best a wave B up soon to be followed by a fierce wave 3 or wave C down, more on that below.
Based on the jobs data at the end of the week just past, the US economy is just doing fine despite high oil prices and crashing alternative credit providers. Do you actually believe the jobs, etc. numbers currently being produced, or more importantly do you believe that the broad investing public believes the numbers? If something smells rotten, it's probably rotten. I believe it was Mario Draghi who famously said something to the effect that those in charge should lie if needed when things started going badly, and Lenin said that a lie told often enough becomes the "truth". The only reliable data these days probably comes from your own eyes (and nose) which will probably even be attacked by the data crunchers who will quote Chico Marx who once said "Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes".
Well, believe the numbers or not, I for one am going to be nervous about the war, the economy and my EWave count, which is looking for a 3rd wave down, until at least the end of the week after next (week of April 13th) when my next crash risk window raises its ugly head. Given the failure of the one a few weeks ago and every cotton picking other one for as long as I have been posting them here, I will forgive you for giggling at this juncture, but the risk is real however low and comically Godot-like.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 04 April 2026 - 05:51 AM.
