8 replies to this topic

[slupert]

PDT eliminated https://watcher.guru...ule-25k-minimum

[Chilidawgz]

I am thinking the same thing for different reasons. As was the case in 2000 regarding the .com madness build out with no earnings...AI IMO is the same thing. While AI will become a "thing" in the future it creates no earnings on the CAPX currently going on. I was there in 2000 and saw two friends get wrecked in the crash. 

 

The insanity in the middle east is far from finished regardless of what Trump tweets and the media tells you. Oil above 78 WTI is a train wreck for the economy. The vertical spike in the QQQ;s reminds me so much of 2000.

 

[Chilidawgz]

Edited by Chilidawgz, 16 April 2026 - 01:41 AM.

[12SPX]

Totally agree why I'm sticking to my only slight gains for the year and agree were in that 1999-2000 period.  I'm thinking China is about to start screaming about Iran needing oil. 

[steadyquest]

I don't yet see anything like 2K here.  The covid money handout might have nominally lifted the price channel and brought a slew of new risk takers into the market.

[Chilidawgz]

Comparing current market valuations to the period just before the 2008 Financial Crisis shows that by almost every metric, the market is significantly more "expensive" today than it was then.

 

Early 2008 was a period where earnings were beginning to crack, but prices hadn't yet fully collapsed. Today (April 2026), we are seeing valuations driven to historic highs, largely fueled by the massive run in technology and AI-related growth.

Market Valuation Comparison

Metric Early 2008 (Pre-Crash) Current (April 2026) Historical Average Trailing P/E Ratio ~21x – 25x ~24.0x ~16x Forward P/E Ratio ~15x ~23.1x ~16x - 18x Shiller P/E (CAPE) ~24x ~37.1x ~17.7x

 

The Shiller PE (CAPE Ratio): This is perhaps the most telling figure. At 37.1, the market is currently 66% above its long-term trendline. For comparison, early 2008 sat around 24. The only time in history the market has been more expensive than it is today was the peak of the Dot-Com bubble in 1999 (which hit 44.2).

 

[Chilidawgz]

Why the 2000 Comparison is Strong

• The "Magic Word" Syndrome: In 1999, adding ".com" to a company name caused the stock to double. Today, companies adding "Generative AI" to their quarterly reports are seeing similar irrational pops, even if their revenue hasn't caught up to the spending.

• The Shiller PE Peak: At 36.5, we are currently at the highest valuation level since the 2000 bubble (which peaked at 44). We have officially surpassed the valuations seen in late 2021 before the 2022 correction.

• Concentration Risk: In 2000, five stocks (Microsoft, Cisco, GE, Intel, Exxon) dominated the index. Today, the "Magnificent Seven" or "Hyperscalers" carry almost 30% of the S&P 500's weight. If they sneeze, the whole index catches a cold.

• In 2000 the internet was real, but, there were no income returns for the capx  which is what we have currently with AI. (today's mkt reminds me of the casino vibe that was rampant back in 2000)

• Late-cycle markets train people to buy every pullback.That mindset existed in 1999–2000 too.

Edited by Chilidawgz, 16 April 2026 - 03:23 PM.

[12SPX]

Yes yesterday they were talking about some shoe company that was basically going under and after they said they were doing AI they're stock shot up 500% even though they know nothing about it. 

[12SPX]

Funny I used AI to find it, it was Allbirds and shot up 500-800% it said.  That for example is irrational and reminds me of 2000