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I'm thinking /7100 on the ES should hold for now. It


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#1 slupert

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Posted 16 April 2026 - 08:52 AM

could be in for a sharp drop after reality starts back in. Europe look like it could really get smacked. I was thinking we should start watching Greek bonds. Remember the financial crisis? They don't have much of an economy only tourism. Europe has less than 6 weeks of Jet fuel left, Goodbye tourists.. The rest of EU looks  dicey to me too. Then of course there is Italy. The blockade of the Vatican should start any day now. Navy Seals snuck in and nailed a copy of The Art of The Deal on the Vatican door. Looks like those  Italian boys are going to have to learn the hard way, just like WWII.

 

The U.S.  will still have the same problems it did before the Iran War. Stagflation should come back in the spotlight. I think the health of the consumer starts to deteriorate more rapidly than they expect. And last but certainly not least is AI,  I think more signs of a top there will surface, However, I usually buy the semis in late May early June, I am expecting a mid year bounce there, but only to the price level we are seeing now, or less.

 



#2 12SPX

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Posted 16 April 2026 - 09:13 AM

Totally agree that reality is going to set in again as we move into the May expiration cycle.  I've been selling my May 3rd week options already as they are priced to the moon right now.  The chart I saw on here on semis the other day tells me they are way to hot right now so I think it may end up flat for the summer.  



#3 steadyquest

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Posted 16 April 2026 - 02:30 PM

I'm afraid the realty is that the reality is changing with the ongoing demise of the middle class.  When the top 20% do the heavy lifting in a consumer economy, it doesn't much matter to the market what happens to the bottom 80%.  The top 20 don't stop consuming if the cost of goods and services goes up a little, because their salaries, portfolios and properties are inflating right along with them.  So the market can function fine with the 80% impoverished - that is until they take up pitchforks. 
 



#4 slupert

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Posted 16 April 2026 - 08:37 PM

Yep,there's a lot going on. I'll probably have time to post this weekend about that and onflation.

#5 slupert

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Posted 17 April 2026 - 07:36 AM

Looks like I'm wrong about 7100 so far. I still think we top in next week or 2. (JMHO)