10 replies to this topic

[ZIDANE]

We are witnessing the greatest melt up in history unfold in realtime. When its all said and done, dont be surprised if we see a 2000 dotcom type blowoff top unfold. Multiple red days or even a few red candles are a thing of the past. There is a relentless underlying bid to this market, the likes of which have never been seen before.

But this time, it really is different. The markets are being led by companies with massive revenues and profits, facilitated by multiple revolutionary tech booms unlike the dotcom era when the vast majority of stocks leading the runup were purely speculative and/or unprofitable. And the scary thing (if youre a bear that is), there might not even be a top anytime in the foreseeable future. I can see this market going absolutely ballistic for months to come. But at the very least, and this is a fairly conservative estimate, we should easily see the markets explode another 25-30% from current levels before we can even think about an IT top.

The only way the bull case would be invalidated is if somehow the previous Dec/Jan ATHs failed to hold support but Id give that less than a 1% chance of happening before another 25-30% melt up. At this point, its going to take a black swan / Hindenburg type of event to shock the market into a new downtrend. I dont see that happening anytime soon.

TLDR: Shed your bear suit and get out of the bulls way before you get run over. The path of least resistance is up and remains up until proven otherwise. All dips are buying opportunities. Were going higher, much higher.

Watch the sky! 😂😂😂

Edited by ZIDANE, 06 May 2026 - 12:04 AM.

[andr99]

well said

[12SPX]

I hate to blow your bubble but I've been trading for 40 years and this move is no different than any other over exuberant markets, its not different this time.  This is'nt overly exuberant anyhow just yet as we were down -10% now bringing us to only a +7% gain so far.  There were lots of companies that made money from 1995-2000 just like now.  Back then it was microsoft, Intel, Oracle, Qualcom, Apple, Amd, Cisco, google to name a few of the same today's stocks!  There were also a ton of other companies that made money such as Netscape and Yahoo but never made it.  Unprofitable companies back then with huge market caps that eventually blew up were about 75-80% in comparison to today's AI companies around 70% that don't make a dime.  My point is that eventually it becomes main stream and real earnings values come into play.  You are right the rally may continue for a while longer but I'm really doubting a blow off top more like a maybe +10% year for the SP500 in the end.  In 1995 Intel was the big winner and got the whole boom going similar to today's Nividea.  Back then Amd challenged Intel for chips just like Amd is up against Nividea today but for example their +20% surge today on great earnings is great but no matter what a 186 p/e ratio is way to high.  Anyhow we'll see how it goes as we move through the rest of the year but this is no different than any other big moves especially comparing to the original tech internet boom, as the internet actually got better and easier from dial up to high speed wireless internet so will AI become common place.  I mean really, I think I was the only person where I lived that had a Linksys wireless router lol!!    

[steadyquest]

Does feel as though the market is in the early stage of a bubble, and that should be the natural path foward from here.  My concern is that we have not yet experienced a genuine oil price shock, due to supply en route and the drawing down of reserves.  The market might change its tune if $200+ pricing is needed fo achieve demand destruction if/when we do hit a hard limit.  A second concern is the psychological effect of the 30-year decisively breaching 5%, which I think is imminent if the fed does not institute curve control measures.  And then there's this pesky SPY count I posted here https://www.traders-...-just-a-bounce/ that is almost done.

The semis are trading as though crude is of no concern, but the 200-day is in a steep decline on the spy and qqq charts.

[Chilidawgz]

this time is different, lol

 

[Chilidawgz]

https://www.youtube....h?v=CPPiIiPoQuY

Edited by Chilidawgz, 08 May 2026 - 12:28 AM.

[linrom1]

What could go wrong? NQs are up 2%, YM is completely flat. The market is cannibalizing itself. 

[linrom1]

What could go wrong? TSMC, the tiny company making 90% of global semiconductors.

[ZIDANE]

 Just like we saw yesterday, bears will be lucky to get a tiny bone thrown their way every now and then which is normal bull market behavior. However, all dips will be short lived buying opportunities as the markets continue their historic explosion to the upside.

 

For all the naysayers, doubters and disbelievers, we'll see how badly the bears get mauled by da bulls a few weeks / months from now. 

 

Watch the sky!   

[ZIDANE]

I hate to blow your bubble but I've been trading for 40 years and this move is no different than any other over exuberant markets, its not different this time.  This is'nt overly exuberant anyhow just yet as we were down -10% now bringing us to only a +7% gain so far.  There were lots of companies that made money from 1995-2000 just like now.  Back then it was microsoft, Intel, Oracle, Qualcom, Apple, Amd, Cisco, google to name a few of the same today's stocks!  There were also a ton of other companies that made money such as Netscape and Yahoo but never made it.  Unprofitable companies back then with huge market caps that eventually blew up were about 75-80% in comparison to today's AI companies around 70% that don't make a dime.  My point is that eventually it becomes main stream and real earnings values come into play.  You are right the rally may continue for a while longer but I'm really doubting a blow off top more like a maybe +10% year for the SP500 in the end.  In 1995 Intel was the big winner and got the whole boom going similar to today's Nividea.  Back then Amd challenged Intel for chips just like Amd is up against Nividea today but for example their +20% surge today on great earnings is great but no matter what a 186 p/e ratio is way to high.  Anyhow we'll see how it goes as we move through the rest of the year but this is no different than any other big moves especially comparing to the original tech internet boom, as the internet actually got better and easier from dial up to high speed wireless internet so will AI become common place.  I mean really, I think I was the only person where I lived that had a Linksys wireless router lol!!    

 

 

For one, Google wasn't even publicly traded in 2000. It IPO'd in 2004. The other stocks on your list kind of emphasize my point. MSFT, INTC, ORCL, QCOM, AAPL, AMD, all went bonkers during this bull run, fueled by staggering revenues and profits. So naturally, they would be some of the names leading today's market.  Apart from those few stocks on your list, the vast majority of NDX 100 stocks from the March 2000 era either went bust or never recovered due to failed business models and staggering debt. A quick search will tell you this about the dotcom era:

 

Out of the ~100 names from 1999–2000:

~15–20 permanently exceeded their 2000 highs

~70–80 never fully recovered

~15–25 effectively “went bust” (bankruptcy, collapse, delisting, near-wipeout)

 

Compare that with today's NDX 100...the vast majority of its tickers are profitable in a big way. I'm not saying we won't ever see a top or a big bad bear market, only that this is not the time to be bearish.

Edited by ZIDANE, 08 May 2026 - 12:48 PM.