My turn probability summation system predicts that the window this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current up trend in the DJIA stretches from Tuesday May 26th through the morning of Wednesday May 27th.
Last week the Wednesday the 20th turn window shown in red on the marketwatch.com plot below caught the meat of a turn up which began a couple of hours earlier on Tuesday, so not quite the hourly low, but the daily one. The Friday the 22nd turn window may have tagged a top, I suppose entirely depending on what flights of war ending fantasy the POTUS publishes over the holiday weekend. Looks to me like Iran has him over a barrel, a barrel of oil that is.
This funny money pumped market is so strong that the bearish divergences that I showed last week are bearly there, pun fully intended, with the Volume AD healing making a new high like the index. The AD line is still in divergence, but probably not for much longer if this rally keeps rolling on.
At least the Hindenburg Omen that I mentioned last week finally gave a sell signal (+3), but as you can see below it can be very early and sometimes just dead wrong, but I guess it's at least something I suppose for dyed in the wool bears to cling to in this crazy bubble.
And finally with no Fed meeting this month and a new chairman, the only clues about policy available are in the numerous speeches being made by the governors, and they appear to be all over the map with doves and hawks. I suppose a better guide to what's going to happen in June is probably the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Regards,
Douglas
