5 replies to this topic

[Chilidawgz]

so iran will likely keep their nuclear and weapons process, seems like the US has failed

12:30 PM

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Claude responded: That's a pretty fair assessment.

That's a pretty fair assessment. Here's the honest breakdown:

What the US said it wanted going in

• Complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program
• Regime change (they assassinated Khamenei)
• A compliant, weakened Iran

What it looks like they're getting

• A ceasefire Iran is dragging its feet on
• Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz
• Nuclear issues "deferred" to future talks — which is diplomatic language for unresolved
• No regime change — Iran's government survived

Why this looks like failure

• Iran's nuclear knowledge can't be bombed away — even if facilities were destroyed, the expertise remains
• Killing Khamenei didn't collapse the regime — it hardened Iranian resistance
• The Strait closure hurt the US and its allies more than it hurt Iran in the short term
• Iran has now shown every country in the world that absorbing a US attack is survivable

The uncomfortable parallel
This rhymes with other US military interventions — Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — where overwhelming military force achieved initial objectives but failed to produce lasting strategic outcomes

The bottom line
The US likely set back Iran's nuclear program by months or years at most. It did not eliminate it. And Iran will almost certainly reconstitute its capabilities over time, probably with less international oversight than before, since any remaining nuclear deal framework has now been shattered by war.

So yes — on the core objective of permanently eliminating Iran's nuclear threat, the US has very likely failed.

 

[slupert]

 

so iran will likely keep their nuclear and weapons process, seems like the US has failed

12:30 PM





 

Claude responded: That's a pretty fair assessment.

That's a pretty fair assessment. Here's the honest breakdown:

What the US said it wanted going in

• Complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program
• Regime change (they assassinated Khamenei)
• A compliant, weakened Iran

What it looks like they're getting

• A ceasefire Iran is dragging its feet on
• Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz
• Nuclear issues "deferred" to future talks — which is diplomatic language for unresolved
• No regime change — Iran's government survived

Why this looks like failure

• Iran's nuclear knowledge can't be bombed away — even if facilities were destroyed, the expertise remains
• Killing Khamenei didn't collapse the regime — it hardened Iranian resistance
• The Strait closure hurt the US and its allies more than it hurt Iran in the short term
• Iran has now shown every country in the world that absorbing a US attack is survivable

The uncomfortable parallel
This rhymes with other US military interventions — Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — where overwhelming military force achieved initial objectives but failed to produce lasting strategic outcomes

The bottom line
The US likely set back Iran's nuclear program by months or years at most. It did not eliminate it. And Iran will almost certainly reconstitute its capabilities over time, probably with less international oversight than before, since any remaining nuclear deal framework has now been shattered by war.

So yes — on the core objective of permanently eliminating Iran's nuclear threat, the US has very likely failed.

 

 

Looks like we are getting the same deal Obamma got. The one he tore up and is still bad mouthing to this day.

[pdx5]

No riff-raff has actually seen the "deal" yet, but the riff-raff keeps posting opinions. That is not a sign of high IQ.

[pdx5]

 The senior Iranian official also told Reuters that under the draft agreement, Iran would agree to neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons and refrain from further uranium enrichment and expansion of its nuclear facilities.

 

“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

Edited by pdx5, 14 June 2026 - 11:09 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Here's my read. This "deal" won't last weeks, if not days. I see zero reason to believe that the Iranian regime(s?) will obey the terms. I also can't conceive of a reason to believe that our leaders don't fully understand this. Thus, I have to think that this "deal" is simply cover for what's coming next, which I suspect is going to be ugly.

 

I'd bet folding money that we're back at war by 7/4.

[hhh]

The agreement "to neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons and refrain from further uranium enrichment and expansion of its nuclear facilities" is the exact same wording they agreed to in 2015. How did that work out?