94 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Btw the quarterly expiration has been moved up to Thursday due to the holiday which makes sense why volume is so low.  The market has basically gone nowhere this cycle so there is likely to be trillions of dollars of contracts go off the board worthless.

[redfoliage2]

Well, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of \(3.5\%\) to \(3.75\%\) during its policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed stopped short of immediately hiking, policymakers signaled that future rate increases are possible if inflation remains elevated due to geopolitical pressures and higher energy costs.
Of course anything is possible depending on inflation, further higher inflation the probability for a rate hike goes higher, but if the inflation remains in the current range, the Fed is likely to keep the current rate or even go lower. Basically it's still data dependent, nothing significantly different from the last meeting. Basically, its not the Fed to decide its the data released from the gov.............

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2026 - 01:25 PM.

[redfoliage2]

With the crude oil price now going down with its bullish trend reversed we should see the inflation rate becomes slower.

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2026 - 01:34 PM.

[redfoliage2]

No good to buy dips today as MMs are in the control preparing for tomorrow's options expiration and they want your calls to expire worthless tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon or Monday is likely better time ........

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2026 - 02:46 PM.

[redfoliage2]

So much for the fear of a hawkish new Fed - Sure, it dropped all forward guidance on rates, but its future changes of the rate still data dependent.   So, let's just watch the data, particularly inflation data, instead of watching the Fed.  I see we are likely to get a relief rally today ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 June 2026 - 04:49 AM.

[12SPX]

Today is expiration day as there's a holiday today so not surprised to see a pop here.  Overnight I sold the daily 7530 calls for $4.50 and were remaining up this morning but the excitement is much less.  Will be interesting if we get back to neutral as this has been a flat expiration cycle!! 

[12SPX]

And boom, out with full profits as we opened far below 7630 and now at the open sold the Septembers contract daily 7620 calls for $4.50

[12SPX]

And just like that, taking profits on the 7620 calls for a $3 profit.  Gotta love option selling!!!  Also started selling 3rd Friday July options at the open and will add to them on Monday after I figure out my Program Numbers for it, but for now trading conservatively!! 

[redfoliage2]

So much for the fear of a hawkish new Fed - Sure, it dropped all forward guidance on rates, but its future changes of the rate still data dependent.   So, let's just watch the data, particularly inflation data, instead of watching the Fed.  I see we are likely to get a relief rally today ...........................

Money running into big techs today like no tomorrow.  We are likely to see new highs in ES and NQ next week with options cycle reset ................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 June 2026 - 09:24 AM.

[12SPX]

The most interesting thing is that out of every expiration, July is the only one that hasn't seen a down one since 2010.  Will be curious to see if it now breaks since I have made it public lol!!