5 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Callum Thomas (who does very nice work), posted some interesting charts on X today. One was retail investors cash allocation. It's low. Really low, and at levels that are generally associated with tops. Similarly, M2-adjusted Margin Debt is also way up there, at levels associated with tops.

 

The thing is, and this is very important, these long-term charts make these "sell signals" look very timely. I can tell you from painful experience, they're often much earlier than these charts make them look. Bears get punished if they short too soon.

 

 

[pdx5]

Interesting charts 👍

[Chilidawgz]

the mkt looks to have topped to my eyes

[OEXCHAOS]

the mkt looks to have topped to my eyes

Breadth and sentiment are telling me that it's not over by a long shot. That said, I'm looking for more correction.

 

[pdx5]

The real long term top comes when Mamdani becomes POTUS. His candidates won 11/12 primaries yesterday.

[CLK]

The Margin Debt/M2 chart especially looks to point to a major top. This market must be heading into a seular top with secular bear next, the amount of topping time making it look like a bull continuation triangle is very suspect, I really can't see this lasting much longer, maybe institutions need exit liquidity for the big turn. The weekly MACD is close to turning down on NQ, very soon we see what this triangle really was, maybe worse case they break it out and sell it, I think.

Edited by CLK, 09 July 2026 - 08:44 AM.