11 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Tom McClellan posited this chart on X this morning, and it alarmed me, mildly. The S&P and NYSE have been looking pretty good during the recent chop, but the Naz Ratio Adjusted Summation Index looks pretty darned ugly to my eye. I suspect that we're in for more weakness than I had originally expected, mostly due to the semi's and perhaps the biotechs dragging the rest of the market down.

 

 

[fib_1618]

The NASDAQ internals remain corrective with the Volume Summation at a robust +986 and a recent "oversold" bottom in the Volume MCO...the Breadth Summation remains above the zero line at this time where, between the two indicators, prices can only trade sideways...and they have done just that. Everything's fine...everything's good...still working off last year's historic breadth thrusts...a pause to refresh.

 

Fib

[CLK]

Fib, prices have only been sideways 2 months, the NASI is below zero now, the time for sideways just ended, a retest of March lows minimum is next, imo. It looks like a bubble top to me, like dotcom 1.0, this could be the start of a 2-3 year bear market now.

[fib_1618]

The volume MCSUM MUST move in tandem with, and ideally lead the breadth MCSUM, for a trend in prices to develop. So, in this case, with the 19 day EMA having crossed below the 39 day EMA of the NASDAQ A/D Line 3 days ago (MCSUM zero line violation), and NDX doing so on Friday, we might be very close to bottoming at around current levels with the more broadly based NASDAQ Composite. No technical top in prices as yet…especially with fresh money coming in now with Trump Accounts that are moving more into stocks of value than those of growth. Things would change internally if and when the MCO’s move below their 1st quarter lows which would then allow lower prices in the NYA, MID and SML. Until then, stocks are correcting the excesses from their March price lows.

 

Fib

[CLK]

But April and May candles went higher too fast, all the way back to 21k is my guess, to get back to the long term trend before the 2 outlier candles.

Edited by CLK, 28 July 2026 - 01:04 PM.

[fib_1618]

But April and May candles went higher too fast, all the way back to 21k is my guess, to get back to the long term trend before the 2 outlier candles.

 

So sorry...I don't speak Japanese! 

 

Fib

[CLK]

You don't think institutions were selling heavily into this the last two months?
Maybe the volume MCO is not factoring retail absorbing the selling volume.

[fib_1618]

You don't think institutions were selling heavily into this the last two months?
Maybe the volume MCO is not factoring retail absorbing the selling volume.

 

There's no prejudice in volume...it is what it is no matter it's make up.

 

And if institutions were selling heavily it would show up in the McClellan's and this is not the case at all....yet.

 

Fib

[CLK]

If one were trading off those and still long, they would be wrong and losing, flat is ok if one made a lot over the last year, but this most likely closes August at March lows so the April and May candles are reversed. I had a target of 7600 SPX at April 2025 lows, it finally hit, but I gave up on it after the top early in the year. This last wave up looked like the end of a bull market.

[fib_1618]

If one were trading off those and still long, they would be wrong and losing, flat is ok if one made a lot over the last year, but this most likely closes August at March lows so the April and May candles are reversed. I had a target of 7600 SPX at April 2025 lows, it finally hit, but I gave up on it after the top early in the year. This last wave up looked like the end of a bull market.

 

Would the end of a bull market have the New York Composite Index, the broadest measure of stock market activity, making new all time highs just yesterday, while the MID and SML still above their 50 day EMA's even after today's sell off?? Believe what you want, but the technical evidence, both internally and price wise, betray your opinion.

 

Patience.

 

Fib