2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my turn probability summation system, the day with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Wednesday August 5th.

 

Last week the peak summation reading on Wednesday July 29th and relatively high readings the rest of the week saw a low on Wednesday and a couple of 1000 point whipsaw moves typical of this sort of uniform high turn summation reading week.  

 

 

My bet on Warsh was on the mark -  cluck, cluck, cluck - a poultry performance with no concrete action on inflation.   The 30 year bond may finally be calling BS on the Fed inflation fight with the yield breaking to new highs in a nasty up trend.  So far stocks, besotted with AI and all the funny money printing, have generally been ignoring the rise in rates, but at some point you would think this higher cost of doing business would start to bite.

 

 

 

At least the POTUS did his now widely expected weekend TACO to drive oil prices back down to help with inflation and of course to drive the DJIA up, although he's played the war-talk-progress card so many times that at some point it's not going to work any more.  The futures Sunday night should tell if that ruse will still smell as sweet.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 02 August 2026 - 07:53 AM.

[Douglas]

Crude is heading south this Monday morning probably due to the POTUS's latest war-talk-progress tweet noted above which answers the question at the end of the post above, yes, just as sweet.  The daily WTIC chart pattern has an interesting triangle.  The triangle measured move (1) has been satisfied after the triangle breakout at (2).  The test of the triangle at (3) appears to show that the triangle is still valid and active, so the questions now are will the triangle focus at (4) point to a turning point in crude or not, and is the trend line (5) the next crude price target?  We shouldn't have long to wait to find out.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

My current EWave count for the DJIA is still holding in there after the big rally this week and is expecting even higher prices to complete this red fifth wave near the upper purple trend line sometime this summer.  Of course, anyone who has followed my previous EWave counts will tell you that the life span of one of my counts is shorter than an ice cream cone in the sun, so caveat emptor.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 05 August 2026 - 01:41 AM.