According to my turn probability summation system this week the periods with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 10th and a window stretching from about noon on Wednesday August 12th through about noon on Friday August 14th, in other words a pretty large piece of the week. Not terribly helpful, but as I always say, it is what it is.
Last week the turn window had a bullseye catching a top turn of some degree as shown in red on the marketwatch.com plot snippet below.
The triangle that I showed in the weekly crude expecting a turn at the focus did not work out with no distinct important top or bottom exactly at the focus, just kind of close, depending on crude's path this week.
The triangle that I posted in the QQQ in purple which was part of diamond pattern did work out with the focus nicely pointing at a bottom, however, the diamond pattern that it was a part of which includes the green triangle calling for a top broke last week with QQQ moving up gapping at about the focus point level thwarting the pattern's prediction of lower prices. That gap in the QQQ run up last week is crying out to be filled which will probably happen in the not too distant future.
The BLS drops more inflation magic numbers in the middle of this week. The drop in energy prices will probably be a drag on the numbers, so good news is likely, but the latest Iranian ceasefire demands might make crude pop offsetting these happy numbers. Longer term all the funny money printing to pay for the huge budget deficit is bound to keep inflation on the road higher whether the BLS reports it or not.
Regards,
Douglas
