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[Douglas]

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 24th (which might be an extension of the window from last Friday August 21st) and a window stretching from Thursday August 27th (probably just the afternoon) through Friday August 28th.  

 

Last week the peak system reading occurred on Friday August 21st which caught a sharp rally out of a low shown in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below.  Action Monday August 24th will determine how important that low was or if it even holds, more on that below.

 

 

Not since President Polk and his 54 40 rallying cry has the US and Canada been at such loggerheads (of course Canada was just territories in Polk's day).  It's hard to gauge the impact the new trade war will have on the stock market given the FED and Bessent's new money pumping operation which swung into very high gear last week shifting up from it's previous high gear position.  Not content with secretly pumping the stock market, last week Bessent went public with their plan to drive down long interest rates and consequentially drive up the stock market.  It's hard to get all beared up when the guys with both hands on the printing press crank are turning the handle as fast as possible. Deficits this big don't just pay for themselves you know.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 22 August 2026 - 01:36 PM.

[Douglas]

Just for grins and giggles, the following is my current EWave thinking on the DJIA.  The red five in the first weekly chart may not be complete as shown in the short term bullish count in the third chart below.  If the lower red trend line on the second chart is broken in action early this week, this bearish short term count becomes more probable, but a rally points to the third chart's more bullish short term outlook.  As noted above, sans some new development early this week, it probably boils down to whether the new Canadian/US trade war or the new FED/Treasury amalgamation money printing dominates.  As always, time will tell the tale.

 

 

Bearish short term alternative count:

 

 

Bullish short term alternative count:

 

 

Regards,

Douglas