3 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm about to do a deep dive into how telling this is, but my thinking is that only "smart money" trades the VIX options. I mean, pretty much everyone here is of well above average intelligence. I'd say we have a fair number of geniuses, in fact. Do YOU feel comfortable trading VIX options?

This month, the VIX P/C has only closed 2 days above 0.50 (that's my bullish/bearish threshold, tentatively). The "smart money" folks appear to be very unwilling to be short the VIX (i.e. implied volatility). That suggests to me that they expect to be (and probably expect others to be) shifting to "risk off" in the coming days. 

 

In any case, it's fascinating. I'll report on what I and my AI find as we get into it.

[Douglas]

Mark, is the VIX P/C ratio available on some public chart service?  I searched stockcharts.com and couldn't find it.  The VIX ratio that I track that does a pretty good job of tagging tops and bottoms when a short moving average of it turns at lows and highs is the $VIX/VXV ratio shown below.  It recently said sell.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[OEXCHAOS]

It isn't available anywhere I've looked. I keep the data daily by hand. I haven't charted it in some time, but I can and should. When I get done with my analysis, I'll update my chart and will post here.

 

Mark

[Douglas]

The ordinary CBOE put/call ratio is heading toward a sell signal, but hasn't quite plumbed the lows needed.  This current rally might drive it down enough in a week or so.  Also buy signals work better in this eternal bull market, surprise, surprise. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas