This week my turn probability summation system predicts that the days most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 31st (which may just be a part of a larger window stretching from last Friday) and a window running from about noon on Thursday September 3rd thru Friday September 4th, the same pattern as last week.
Last week the Monday the 24th turn window tagged a tiny inconsequential low shown in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below and so was a dud. The Thursday 27th noon thru Friday the 28th turn window may have caught a top of some degree depending on action this coming Monday.
At Jackson Hole, Warsh carried on with the same old schtick he rolled out at the FED meeting of talking tough with no firm plans of actually doing anything to stem inflation other than helping the Treasury with Bessent's latest operation twist which probably pumps up stocks actually making total real inflation which includes asset price increases worse. No "we're raising rates until inflation dies" Volcker-like statement. The two year note took it on the chin, but stocks hardly budged having seen this kabuki many times before.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 30 August 2026 - 08:50 AM.
