2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my turn probability summation system, this entire coming week is one big turn window with peaks in the summation on Tuesday September 8th and Friday the 11th.  Given all the cycles turning in the next couple of months, this wide spread turn risk is probably just going to get worse before it gets better.  More on that below.

 

Last week the Monday the August 31st turn window was an acceleration event occurring in what appears to be the 3rd or C wave of a move down as noted in red in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below.  The end of last week turn window may have tagged a top of some sort depending on what happens this coming Tuesday when the market reopens.

 

 

The next few months are mine fields for the market.  It will be amazing if nothing really nasty happens considering all the cycles that bottom over this window.  The peaks of this risk according to a preliminary look at my summation system probably occur this coming week and in the middle of this month,  the first full week of October and the first week of November. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

Edited by Douglas, 06 September 2026 - 06:35 AM.

[Douglas]

Just maybe a market corner has been turned.  The long AD up trend line in the first plot below has recently been broken, and the hi-low summation line has turned down in the second plot.  Both could right themselves and make new highs, but the current weakness could also be a harbinger of nasty things to come in the large turn risk window stretching in front of us over the next few months that I note above.  The market action over the next few week's should clarify which is on deck.  We may get an answer as early as this coming Thursday and Friday when the latest cooked inflation numbers are served out of the cauldrons at the BLS.

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

So far this Tuesday, the DJIA is sinking, but the day is still young and Kevin & Scott might yet crank up the money pumps to right the ship.  My current EWave count assumes a third wave is just beginning in the DJIA as shown below.  The real trap door to hades doesn't open until the TDTH line is crossed to the downside.  If the green trap door to heaven (TDTH) line is crossed to the upside, my count is rubbish and the trees will once again be growing to the sky. Tomorrow and Friday's inflation numbers might just push the DJIA over the line one way or the other.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas