According to my turn probability summation system's peak readings, the days this coming week most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Thursday October 1 & Friday October 2nd. The turn summation value for Wednesday is also quite high, so maybe some sort of whipsaw affair in the last three days of the week is possible.
Last week the Monday September 21st turn window seen in the first red bracket on the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below, more or less tagged the DJIA high trading range for the week with the exact high in very early trading on Tuesday. Exactly what last Friday's turn window was pointing to will have to wait on trading this coming Monday.
The next couple of weeks are filled with cycle turn land mines just waiting for the unsuspecting to step on. The week after this coming week hosts the latest crash risk window which in order to work requires the market to be oversold and for a black swan event to occur, a tall order probability wise, so a very low likelihood of occurring, but given the current wars situations, definitely not a zero risk, but you can probably bet your bottom dollar that the ex hedge fund manager duo running Treasury and the Fed will absolutely meet any market tail spin down with an immediate flood of funny money to quickly stem the drop, so a one day or two day at most slide is about all the bears can hope for.
If no serious sell off does occur between now and November 9th with all the cycles bottoming, a melt up is possible. Hard to believe at these nose bleed valuation levels, but short covering and the post-election relief may provide powerful fuel for a rally if the black swans decide to play chicken and roost, not fly during the crash window.
Regards,
Douglas
