According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest odds of seeing a turn in or an acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday October 5th which may just be a continuation of this past week's Thursday-Friday turn window and Wednesday October 7th.
Last week the Thursday October 1st thru Friday the 2nd turn window shown in red on the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below caught a low the importance of which will be determined by action early this coming week. This turn up might be quite short lived if Monday's turn window is not part of the late past week window.
As I noted in last week's turn window post, this coming week is the next crash risk window peaking right in the mid-week turn window noted above. As I have countless times pointed out, the odds of these actually tagging a crash are extremely low. There are several of these crash risk windows each year and despite (or probably because of) my diligence in pointing them out, not a single one has tagged a crash since I have started noting them. So much for my prognostication skills, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
If a sell off in the DJIA actually does ever occur in the coming months, it will probably be the last gasp of a bear market that has lasted 26 years. What bear market you say, the one in the real DJIA shown below. The DJIA divided by gold peaked in 2000 and has been in a down trend ever since. This real DJIA appears to be on the cusp of completing three large waves down. Can't say if that will be due to the DJIA rising or gold falling or a bit of both. Sometime between now and the end of 2027, a real barn burner of a bull market in the real DJIA should get rolling.
For the crash window to work requires a black swan. In 1987 the then Treasury secretary James Baker trash talking a rapidly falling dollar was pointed to as the black swan causing the stock market crash. This past week our illustrious leader trash talked US Treasuries noting that inflation could be easily used to pay off the massive 40 trillion deficit (see Fortune Magazine article published on October the 2nd). It is not clear if sovereigns holding Treasuries got the memo yet or read Fortune Magazine, but enough inflation to wipe out the US deficit would make those countries treasury holdings pretty much worthless. A stampede out of treasuries would be just the black swan needed to light off a crash. The POTUS may get away with his treasury trash talking since he does so much of it that hardly anyone notices anymore, but if the wrong ones do take note, Katy better bar the door.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 03 October 2026 - 01:51 PM.
