3 black crows
#1
Posted 22 January 2005 - 06:07 AM
#2
Posted 22 January 2005 - 08:56 AM
#3
Posted 22 January 2005 - 09:28 AM
#4
Posted 22 January 2005 - 09:39 AM
Edited by Sentient Being, 22 January 2005 - 09:39 AM.
~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~
#5
Posted 22 January 2005 - 11:47 AM
Here's a good overview of "3 black crows:" Streetauthority.com
It is a reversal pattern rather than a continuation pattern.
The NDX is different after the Thursday gap down. Here is my wish for you bulls for Monday & Tuesday: AN ISLAND!
BUT, don't get your hopes up. The 50% retrace & 200DMA are just below @ 36.18 QQQQ or 1468 NDX.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 January 2005 - 12:06 PM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#6
Posted 22 January 2005 - 12:06 PM
The three black crows candle formation does not happen very frequently in stock trading, but when it does occur swing traders should be very alert to the crow's caw.
The candlestick pattern's metaphor is three crows sitting in a tall three. Essentially, it is a reversal formation that occurs following a strong advance.........Be very alert when you see three black crows appear on a chart. Their appearance indicates a period of powerful selling pressure. If on the fourth day the stock cannot gather strength, then lower prices are likely ahead.
That's why Monday's trading will be extremely pivotal. If the market moves big in one direction or the other on heavier volume than Friday, the direction of the next 1-2 week's trading will become self-evident. However, as noted earlier, the three black crows have occurred well into this decline, and not at or just after the top as suggested in the commentary. Following this pattern as a low risk new short entry is not advisable. That's not to say that selling won't continue, but the odds have started to turn in favor of this being nearer the end of the decline rather than closer to the beginning.
#7
Posted 22 January 2005 - 12:29 PM
That's why Monday's trading will be extremely pivotal. If the market moves big in one direction or the other on heavier volume than Friday, the direction of the next 1-2 week's trading will become self-evident. However, as noted earlier, the three black crows have occurred well into this decline, and not at or just after the top as suggested in the commentary. Following this pattern as a low risk new short entry is not advisable. That's not to say that selling won't continue, but the odds have started to turn in favor of this being nearer the end of the decline rather than closer to the beginning.
[/quote]
The blackbirds on the other charts came well into the declines. Here is a chart of 2002 showing the the index had already started to decline before the crows showed up.
By looking at these charts, I doubt we can put much weight on mondays move as it looks almost inevitable that there would be some type of price higher then Fridays close. I think one of the most noteable things here is that a consolidation that hangs out at these lows and then breaks down should bring on some strong selling but we also would not need the consolidation.
One other difference on the recent chart is the the major ma's are not tilted down as strongly, this is because this selling is closer to price highs then in a already established downtrend.
cheers
#8
Posted 22 January 2005 - 12:36 PM
Edited by entropy, 22 January 2005 - 12:37 PM.
#9
Posted 22 January 2005 - 12:44 PM
quote]
That's why Monday's trading will be extremely pivotal. If the market moves big in one direction or the other on heavier volume than Friday, the direction of the next 1-2 week's trading will become self-evident. However, as noted earlier, the three black crows have occurred well into this decline, and not at or just after the top as suggested in the commentary. Following this pattern as a low risk new short entry is not advisable. That's not to say that selling won't continue, but the odds have started to turn in favor of this being nearer the end of the decline rather than closer to the beginning.
[/quote]
The blackbirds on the other charts came well into the declines. Here is a chart of 2002 showing the the index had already started to decline before the crows showed up.
By looking at these charts, I doubt we can put much weight on mondays move as it looks almost inevitable that there would be some type of price higher then Fridays close. I think one of the most noteable things here is that a consolidation that hangs out at these lows and then breaks down should bring on some strong selling but we also would not need the consolidation.
One other difference on the recent chart is the the major ma's are not tilted down as strongly, this is because this selling is closer to price highs then in a already established downtrend.
cheers
[/quote]
As IYB has noted many times, it all depends on whether we are in an IT decline, or just a correction in an IT uptrend. In 2002, in the chart you picked out, we were clearly in an IT decline, no one could argue any different on that. But now, the jury is still out as to whether we have started an IT decline, or as IYB and a few of us others believe, this is just a very scary correction in an IT uptrend. If the former, much lower prices are straight ahead, and if the latter, new highs in 2-4 weeks should be expected.
#10
Posted 22 January 2005 - 01:16 PM
Very well put Mark, must be that name "Mark"That doesn't mean it IS, its just the price patterns have a higher risk of that now, than if these patterns hadn't setup -its all probabilities that all.
What's more to the point, is none of these patterns support the idea of a swing bottom being in at low friday, so why risk being caught in a big gap down monday - why not wait to at least see how price opens, as odds favour a low retest and lower risk entry next week no matter what.
Mark.
Well, at what point do you not call this a correction?As IYB has noted many times, it all depends on whether we are in an IT decline, or just a correction in an IT uptrend. In 2002, in the chart you picked out, we were clearly in an IT decline, no one could argue any different on that. But now, the jury is still out as to whether we have started an IT decline, or as IYB and a few of us others believe, this is just a very scary correction in an IT uptrend. If the former, much lower prices are straight ahead, and if the latter, new highs in 2-4 weeks should be expected.
I am just noting that several of the jury members have already voted. Maybe the others can sway them back, I dunno...... Certainly I can understand buying support and then just cutting it if it doesn't get going, same as shorting at top and cutting it if it gets going. I am for whatever makes you money.
cheers