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Cashing in tomorrow...


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#1 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 27 November 2003 - 09:38 PM

Am I calling this the top of the run? No! What I am doing it making a call based on two simple facts:
1. This is the very first run with real cash on my trading system and until I see more forward results I will play on the safe side.
2. The rare occurance of the port gaining more than 20% during a run offers two possibilities, one we are at or near a peak and over the next week or two a cash signal will present itself at a lower profit level, or the market is screaming ahead in a way that the past 3 years of backtesting could not figure for. Out of the two possibilities one contains facts and the other speculation and I will opt for basing my decision on the facts.


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#2 teki

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Posted 27 November 2003 - 09:45 PM

I'm almost with you. After the big run up Weds, I am going to take 1/3 of my BGO, CDE and CBJ shares off the table, and book some profits. Leaving the rest until either a more obvious sell signal, I get stopped out, or maybe they go even higher. The New York Times has a big article on Gold on the front page of the business section today, made me nervous. Does that mean it distribution time in the short term, smart money selling to new speculators?

#3 uncleharley

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Posted 28 November 2003 - 12:09 AM

:P The long term gold chart shows that we have a multi yr cup formation. Methinks there is another 15% to the upside before we start to form the handle. :rolleyes:

#4 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 28 November 2003 - 06:20 AM

Thanks for the replies, I work two gold ports, the one I am closing is on a new system but I am still holding shares in another system. The other system which incorporates cost averaging has almost went to cash but I plan on rebalancing the port this weekend and may add a few shares here and there just in case. I am looking for an early morning push during amature hour and will try to exit on any spikes that occur.

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WaveSpeak.com is calling a possible top on the 60 min chart but they are also showing the US dollar in a wave 3 down if we close less than 90.27 ish ( might be off a few cents here).

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#5 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 28 November 2003 - 09:53 AM

Done Deal... 24.36% :D

#6 blustar

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Posted 28 November 2003 - 04:02 PM

My read on this is this has been a B Wave since early Oct in a running correction. 1 of three topped out in Late Sept 2003. If I am right, we should pull back sharply to 98.46 on the XAU in the next 3-4 days and set up wave 2 of three (right on top of wave 1 of three).

In my opinion, this should be a great buying opportunity going forward into October 2004 with a target of 180 on the XAU. The juniors and penny "turkeys" should benefit most from this run forward.

Brad Gudgeon
http://www.blustar.info

Blessings,

 

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#7 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 28 November 2003 - 04:09 PM

The juniors and penny "turkeys" should benefit most from this run forward.

These guys (juniors and penny "turkeys") will also take the hardest hit when the drop occurs... I find it best to get out when the gettin's good...

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#8 TechSkeptic

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 08:31 PM

My short-term outlook is cautious, so my strategy pver the next few days will be to sell some of my underperforming gold equities into continued strength and add to the good performers if/when we get reasonable pullbacks. Looking to go long NEM on a pullback to 45 or so and gold futures if we get back to the low 390's.

#9 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 09:18 PM

I am kicking myself in the arse right now.. could have bagged another 5% today... oh well.. live and learn... ;)