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#51 OptionTrading

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Posted 19 June 2006 - 08:35 PM

That was a good tree shaking.

Heck, I almost fell for it! :P

Same here.. :bones:
*phew*

#52 da_cheif

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Posted 20 June 2006 - 06:57 PM

Todays activity suggests that the boyz still want to fill that 1241.20 gap in the sept contract......with the focus on june 22nd (the day the offsets on the 30 day ma of the clx runout) I just patiently await watever larcenies those weasels have in store for us......worst case remains 1212 but that number would imho only be reached on some sort of out of the blue bad news about something disastrous ur somthin....cant see it based upon my numbers.....1212 is however the 75% retrace off the low of oct 14 and with 1219 the recent low that number as yet remains a possibility.....the end result ....much higher prices

#53 da_cheif

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Posted 21 June 2006 - 09:40 AM

Investors intel bull bear ratio even better this week......no prisoners........yet Advisors Sentiment 21 June 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview There was another decline in the bulls and increase in the bears this week, with both groups equal at 35.6%. For the second week we note the fewest bulls since they fell to 28.4%, around the market bottom in October 2002. This is also the most bears that same month. On 11-October 2002 the bears were up to 43.2%, and that was 14.8% higher then the bulls. The next week the bears fell to 35.6% and the bulls surged 10%. Just two weeks later, as the market turned to the upside, the readings had almost reversed with 43.4% bulls and 28.3% bears. The current remainder of advisors are classified as correction, and they increased to 28.8%, from 26.9% last time. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. The last time that occurred was October 2002, noted above, and the readings could be heading to a bearish plurality again. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower. The current difference is well below that, and markets have corrected more than 10%. There is no difference between the bulls and bears, following a narrowing to just 4.3% a week ago. A further move would show a plurality of bear, and that was last shown in October 2002. Between then and now, the smallest spread was 9.4%, at the August 2004 bottom.

#54 Vector

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Posted 22 June 2006 - 08:41 PM

Only thing needed here now is PATIENCE

http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

#55 da_cheif

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Posted 27 June 2006 - 09:48 PM

Todays activity suggests that the boyz still want to fill that 1241.20 gap in the sept contract......with the focus on june 22nd (the day the offsets on the 30 day ma of the clx runout) I just patiently await watever larcenies those weasels have in store for us......worst case remains 1212 but that number would imho only be reached on some sort of out of the blue bad news about something disastrous ur somthin....cant see it based upon my numbers.....1212 is however the 75% retrace off the low of oct 14 and with 1219 the recent low that number as yet remains a possibility.....the end result ....much higher prices



once again we see that the unrealized target at 1240 remains on the radar screen..and quite possibly 1212.....thin market conditions infront of a long weekend leaves the next 5 or 6 trading days a golden opportunity for the boys to go for the jugular. 1240 remains a minimum expectation.......however the length of the recent trading range off the 1219 recent low lends itself to the possibility of 1212.......such a smash if one of such a magnitude were cunducted would most certainly set up sentiment into a white hot condition in preparation for the dows ramp to historic highs..

#56 da_cheif

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Posted 28 June 2006 - 06:30 AM

Insiders sentiment gauge from hulbert

http://www.marketwat...d=mktw&dist=nbk


Bonds sentiment gauge still looking like bonds about to collapse...from hulbert


http://www.marketwat...D4}&siteId=mktw

#57 Vector

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Posted 28 June 2006 - 12:31 PM

Huge long term (9-12 month) cycle bottom trying to form here. (Could it be the 4 yr trying for an early go here too? That would fool the many and we know the market likes to fool the many and not accomodate them) Either way mid July should finish this mess off then off we go again to test or exceed the highs. Slow accumulation of quality issues is the way to go here. :redbull:

#58 da_cheif

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Posted 28 June 2006 - 09:20 PM

I agree........the 1986 4 year low occured in april i think......interesting in 1986 the dow closed near historic highs at the end of december and the daily ad line of the nyse was making its low for the year....it had been goin downtown all year........and with the dow near historic highs sentiment because of the falling ad line was bearish and of course the market exploded.....sentiment currently is in super shape and any one last stab to the downside from here would need the perfect alibi and that of course would be the fed announcement this week.....with t bonds rite on its 38.2 support off the low of november 1994 any further break should cause a collapse in tbonds quickly to the next support at 100....a perfect alibi for one more hiccup that no doubt would get investors intell bull bear reatio into better shape.....ie; more bears than bulls.....all this excercise over the short term gyrations has no bearing whatsoever on the ultimate resolution of this mother of all bull markets......WATCH THE SKY... :redbull: .....ps.....really dissapointed the boys didnt get the 1240 gap filled but that may yet be accomodated in the hours ahead........staying long from 1095

#59 Vector

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Posted 29 June 2006 - 04:26 PM

In retrospect, the reason why I said this
http://www.traders-t...ndpost&p=221053

...back on June 14th

The Bollinger band overshoot on the 13th tags bottom/extreme once again.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p97669250720

Overshoot happened on both the VIX and SPX, on same day.

Confirmed buy signal (rally has legs, safe to now buy dips) hits on the 15th with ratio spiking up bigtime.

#60 da_cheif

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Posted 29 June 2006 - 08:03 PM

the market isnt goin to take any prisoners imho.....the kickoff 19 trin ive seen before. jan 15 1991 with a breakaway gap.....naz led by intel and msft appears headed for the 2700 area and overall ATH.s....todays announcement from MSFT was significant... http://biz.yahoo.com...h059.html?.v=61

in that it came at the end of a bullish 2nd wave correction in the naz....and of course being a dow component likewise........all big moves up are preceded by ugly declines......so it was written and so it shall be....... :redbull:

The launch from the jan 91 low after the first few days was greeted with a minor reaction that cooled everybody off....then it went straight up like a rocket......all this off course is entirely... fwiw imho BLA BLA BLA and subject to revision in case the market gets it wrong like it sometimes does in this MOABM.s...........and "da" Nawz Drovia......snort :redbull:




Yes ....a lot like the launch from the jan 91 low.....