Jump to content



Photo

post expiration adjustment time...


  • Please log in to reply
195 replies to this topic

#81 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,998 posts

Posted 16 July 2006 - 10:41 PM

Just like I did the 4-year cycle high. They get around to everyone. Trust me. Pride goeth before the fall. M

Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#82 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 17 July 2006 - 10:29 AM

the sox appears to be at or near the end of a diagonal triangle 5th wave rite at its 75% retrace off the low of 9/10/04...if thats correct a turn up off a diag triangle is usualy quite violent......anytime now... sentiment improved again....as Timer Digest shows 70% of the top ten are out of the market....with the 3 top timers bullish that suggests about 90% of the 120 tracked are bearish.....there have been times when all of the top ten were out....(rare)....but allways at a very important low......with calls for 100 to 200 dollar a barrel oil the wave structure of oil with its recent 3 gap play suggests otherwise.....once bonds take out 105.15 its bombs away to 100 fast...imho :redbull:

#83 kc135a

kc135a

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 501 posts

Posted 17 July 2006 - 11:52 AM

I forgot about that. Here's my prediction, which I'm sure will happen...

Most who are waiting for the 4 yr cycle low to come will still be waiting for it 3 yrs from now AFTER it already came (never as planned, envisioned or expected) and they will miss the next 4 yr up phase. Sitting there saying, "it hasn't come yet" or "it might have BUT it's too late now to hop on...it's waaaay overvalued and too parabolic."

That's why I'm staying put and riding it out. Its not worth the shuffle.


OK, maybe you are correct on your view of the 4 year low and maybe not. The real question is why?

What do you see that makes you believe the 4 year low is in.

FWIW I am a screaming bull into late summer to early fall 2009. However, I have 30 years of data that indicates the 4 year low will happen. If not, then it gets delayed to next year but does not come early. I can support that statement. What are you seeing that supports your view. It is not important to me that I agree or disagree, I just don't get what you are looking at.

Thanks

KC

#84 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 18 July 2006 - 07:37 PM

four year low probably happened allready..... on jan 20 for the dow june 14 for the sp 500 today july 18 for the sox...today july 18 for the value line nasdaq 100 ..naz comp.......jan 3 for the 65 comp jan 18 for the transports.....all of course unless not....snort :redbull:

#85 Vector

Vector

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,828 posts

Posted 18 July 2006 - 07:59 PM

I'm thinking the exact same thing. SURPRISE!

#86 youmast

youmast

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 2,870 posts

Posted 19 July 2006 - 07:23 AM

I agree on that timing... However I don't think the market will be able to make a new high after that. Da bounce in 1270-90. That's it. That would be 70 days North-East direction, just like to Moscow, not To-Da-Moon. ;)

Anyhow... you did a nice job, cheif. Thanks.

Posted Image


Well... in a month since my comment above we've got expected 1270-90. Then retraced back to June low. Now we'll try again "to-da-moooooo..." But as I said a month ago we're going North-East, folks... North-East to Moscow like these pinguins. :)

Da_Astronauts will be wrong again... :(

#87 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 19 July 2006 - 08:52 AM

US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 19 July 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview There were only tiny weekly changes in the advisory sentiment with the bulls slightly lower at 42.1% while the bears edged higher to 33.7%. That shows little change from the prior weeks 42.2% and 33.3%, respectively, despite the sharp market pullback. Four week ago, when indexes traded at 2006 lows, the bulls and bears were even at 35.6%. Many of the newsletters pointed out that the rebound from the mid-June market lows was a very favorable recovery from extreme oversold conditions. They expect the interest rate environment to begin to stabilize, with less pressure on the Fed to combat inflation. Also noted were the sharp corrections in some market sectors, especially those cyclical groups that had strong gains earlier this year. Only a few have noted the Mid-East violence, and some that did comments expect oil production to remain unaffected and that prior outbreaks in that region had limited long term impact on stock prices. Those calling for a correction were down to 24.2%, down from 24.5% last time. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The current difference is well below that, but expanding from a 0% difference three weeks ago. The current difference between the bulls and bears was 8.4%, down from the prior 8.9%. These are expanding from the zero spread shown four weeks ago for a positive signal. Sentiment Charts Bullish Themes �Stocks bottomed out on Friday morning and have been moving sideways to higher since then. For today the indexes were little changed, with light volume on the NYSE SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P Index, has come down almost as far as its lower trading band in a retest of the June 13 lows. Although I would be more confident if volume had increased today, the SPY is nevertheless in a buying area at today�s close of $123.38, which is close to the lower trading band, 2% below the 200-day moving average� (July 17, 2006 via email) Systems & Forecasts, 150 Great Neck Road, Great Neck NY 11021 �Outlook: For the most daring of you it is a goods time to start buying again. Keep in mind that this is a trading opportunity, not a long- term commitment. We will stay with the strongest sectors and be ready to sell if the market changes direction.� (July 10, 2006 via US mail) Peter Dag Portfolio, 65 Lakefront Drive, Akron OH 44319 Bearish Themes �S&P 500 Closes back below 200-day MA! NASDAQ & NDX well below moving averages, leading on the downside! That is the worst possible configuration = DJIA best - NDX worst. Foreign markets all sharply lower. Geopolitical concerns rising. We remain 200% short major indexes using full margin� (July 13, 2006 via email) Crawford Perspectives www.CrawfordPerspectives.com

#88 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 19 July 2006 - 09:29 AM


I agree on that timing... However I don't think the market will be able to make a new high after that. Da bounce in 1270-90. That's it. That would be 70 days North-East direction, just like to Moscow, not To-Da-Moon. ;)

Anyhow... you did a nice job, cheif. Thanks.

Posted Image


Well... in a month since my comment above we've got expected 1270-90. Then retraced back to June low. Now we'll try again "to-da-moooooo..." But as I said a month ago we're going North-East, folks... North-East to Moscow like these pinguins. :)

Da_Astronauts will be wrong again... :(

seems i heard that argument about 1170 once...... B)

#89 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 19 July 2006 - 10:02 AM

the sox appears to be at or near the end of a diagonal triangle 5th wave rite at its 75% retrace off the low of 9/10/04...if thats correct a turn up off a diag triangle is usualy quite violent......anytime now...

sentiment improved again....as Timer Digest shows 70% of the top ten are out of the market....with the 3 top timers bullish that suggests about 90% of the 120 tracked are bearish.....there have been times when all of the top ten were out....(rare)....but allways at a very important low......with calls for 100 to 200 dollar a barrel oil the wave structure of oil with its recent 3 gap play suggests otherwise.....once bonds take out 105.15 its bombs away to 100 fast...imho :redbull:

oil is falling now as the 3 gap play spelled doom for the price of crud......crude....lol....now 5 dollars off its high.....78.40 was the high in the access

#90 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 19 July 2006 - 04:05 PM

IF anyone wants to learn how to do the clx....its all right here...


http://www.newportha...mputerworks.htm :lol: