24 replies to this topic

[Jnavin]

The chart that just won't stop. Also, I had 3 hits on my blog today from people coming over via Google Finance searchs for TIE -- 3 different hits from 3 different places around the world. It's being noticed.

[hiker]

Hi John...how's it going? How is the running at the higher elevation working out? I imagine you are accustomed to it by now. I am working back up to 2 hours daily of cycling...the daily snow shoveling for 5 mos. is just not the same amount of fun for some reason! Plan to hit the rivers and creeks soon for fishing before high water starts...the river managers are trying to flush the rainbows out of the North Fork of the Snake into the Columbia for the third consecutive year, so the Snake is about to come out of its banks right now...saw on Osprey above the river on last night's ride.

The entire metals complex and transports have been something else for the last 18 mos....hard to want to be elsewhere...Canadian oil sands, offshore drillers, oil services, and the coals may also keep running. What you think of NG stocks?

...T. Boone Pickens recently said on CNBC that the oversupply of NG will be a long-term fundy, while crude oil undersupply is likely to be a long-term fundy....I sold all my UPL this week. Do not know if I want to play NG stocks at all from here when other opps. may have more upside with less risk.

Happy spring!

I posted this elsewhere on April 11 -

7:10AM On The Wires : Titanium Metals (TIE) announces that it will construct a new electron beam cold hearth melt furnace at its facility in Morgantown, Pennsylvania. The new E.B. furnace will cost approximately $35 mln and upon full commissioning in the first qtr of 2008, will be capable of producing quality titanium products for use in all market sectors.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?tie

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ati

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?rti

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?hxl

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?rs


my March 27th post at the same elsewhere -

ATI closed today above the prior all-time intraday high of $58.99.


ditto for TIE, closing above the prior intraday ATH of $44.50.

thread with some brief history I have posted of Longbow's analyst comments, etc since January 20th -

http://forums.techni...605#post9494605

Edited by hiker, 14 April 2006 - 12:21 PM.

[Jnavin]

I'm running 2 miles a day, every other day -- working toward the 10k "Boulder Bolder" on Memorial Day. The best part of regular running is that I sleep like a baby overnight. My knees hurt, but I'm very rested. I'm holding onto EP and GAS, but they're holding right at break-down levels. I wonder if I'll ever sell TIE...

[mss]

I'm running 2 miles a day
I'm holding onto EP and GAS, but they're holding right at break-down levels.
I wonder if I'll ever sell TIE...

I'm watching girls run past the house
By the ema I use - be out
If I had bought TIE I would be so now. Looks really good to me.

[Jnavin]

TIE now in the 3rd day of a ridiculous rally. I'm gonna be forced to take 1/2 off the table...Wednesday.

[Jnavin]

Took half the TIE position off the table.

[Jnavin]

The remainder of my TIE position is up 9% midday. This is just ridiculous.

[hiker]

John - I logged in at TT just now to find out what label is appropriate for today's 7.25% move in TIE, following last week's 18% move.

I can think of less entertaining things than this kind of action:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?TIE

those volume candles on this price advance are being noticed...and it closed today not that far from the day's high.

I closed out all but 10% of my TIE positon today because...35 plus 100% move up equals $70 which was appproached by today's high - $35 was a basing area just above the most recent lows near $32.50....

note the new high in the BB width on the daily chart

note the value of the ADX for different ADX settings...trend exhaustion?

note the structural pattern of the daily RSI

note the structural pattern of the ROC

a retrace to $62.4 - 65 would not be surprising considering the upper BB and the 5-day ema...who knows?

Edited by hiker, 24 April 2006 - 04:49 PM.

[hiker]

TIE - my quick count shows this is day 53 since the 39.88 high on the chart which preceded the consolidation low of 34.61 from which this rally leg started....more on the 54-day interval count that I posted elsewhere this weekend that only shows it works in some cases:

ICE started trading in November of 2005, and 69.2 trading days later is February 27th, 2006....which is 3 days later than the swing low of $48.15 on Feb. 22nd, from which the current rally leg started.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ICE

69.2 additional trading days starting from February 27th 11:30 a.m. would extend the current rally leg: 69.2 days minus 38.8 elapsed days thru 4/21 = 30.4 trading days remaining in this rally leg.

This 69.2 time interval which can be applied to counting hours or days is based on Fibonacci numerology as shown below, and can be observed in some chart patterns:

fibonacci numerology: (377 /7) * (9 / 7) = 69.2

a 54 time interval is also common in price charts, and can be observed in the ICE chart pattern (the $58.40 swing high was 54 trading days after ICE first started trading...this Monday, April 24th will be the completion of the second 54-day interval on the ICE chart, if my quick count is correct):

fibonacci numerology: 377/7 = 53.86

These time interval rhythms are worthy of consideration, in addition to other technical tools.

Note the SU chart below in which 53 trading days elapsed between the prior swing high of $82.15 and the current swing high of $89.88 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?su

54 days elapsed on the oil chart below between the former swing high of $69.20 and the day it gapped up to break the $70 barrier for the first time -

http://stockcharts.c.../gallery/?$wtic

54 days elapsed on the chart below between the former swing high of $41.08 and the current swing high of $43.44 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ccj

53 days elapsed on the chart below between the former swing high of $23.37 and the current swing high of $26.79 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?dbrn

there can be a 54-day count on the chart below between peak-to-peak highs, just not the obvious swing high as the starting point for the rally leg that ended with the $20.60 current swing high -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?oats

----------

on this count of time intervals, here some thoughts posted today about the SOX:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sox

Does anyone else have a different version than the one I propose below for the approx. 121-day cycle count for the SOX?

Or any other time interval cycle counts that may be of use here?

(The average 121-day cycle count can be observed in the SPX chart as follows: the March 12, 2003 low, the August 13, 2004 low, the August 3rd 2005 high, and I am unsure which is the next turn date for the SPX - the low in January or February, 2006).


Comments are greatly appreciated, but I know only enough to be dangerous about cycle counts, so please be aware that questions about this subject are best directed to more knowledgeable folks.

I consider myself an amateur in terms of identifying the start and end of cycle counts...and personally, I consider it an awareness tool...not a predictive one.

I made the SOX trading-day count based on a view to the price action of each timeframe, and not the precision of the day counts, so I may be all wet, and did not go back to a period prior to fall of 2003:

VERSION 1 of count of an approx. 121-day cycle for the SOX -

late Nov 2003 thru late May 2004 - price turned down from the late Nov high (the actual turn down was first preceded by a fakeout move up to the January high...this "consolidaton" higher from the November high was of 6-7 weeks duration, so the cylce count is questionable for this timeframe, and possibly those that follow )

late May 2004 thru late Nov. 2004 - price turned down from the May high

late Nov. 2004 thru May 2005 - price turned back up in late Nov. 2004

May 2005 - Nov 2005 - turn back up started May 2005

Nov 2005 thru May 2006 - turn back up started Nov 2005

The observation below makes a trader wonder if a downside break of the blue bullish support line on the Point & Figure chart will occur here like it did prior to the May 2005 and Nov. 2005 121-day cycle turns:

of possible significance is that the recent turns at the May 2005 and November 2005 lows have coincided with new uptrends that started following downside breaks of the prior bullish support line on the Point & Figure chart....which is where current price action resides shortly following the current rally failure at 534 resistance and the test of the downtrend line.


A separate observation that may have no use is that the start of the current uptrend line on the PnF chart is a few boxes above the price point where the downside break of the two prior uptrend lines occured to set up the later turn at 380 area in May 2005.

Edited by hiker, 24 April 2006 - 05:18 PM.

[Jnavin]

Another new high today. Bullish candlestick. It's hyper-parabolic at this stage.