20 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

Share prices for last Friday's close.

It's been one of the worst six-month periods in years due to the hammering the price of natural gas has taken. Shiningbank and Thunder had to cut dividends and their share prices have suffered, as is the norm with cuts. I'm concerned that Harvest may be forced to cut in the future.

Overall, the dividends are still coming in.


Doug

[SilentOne]

Doug, I bought a few gas energy trusts today and stuck them in my retirement accounts. Seems like NG bottomed here and should rise into the fall. Also I see the egenral market rising here, so with the liquidity hopefully improving, I'm giving it a whirl. cheers, john

[PorkLoin]

Hi John,

Agreed there is a good shot for NG to go up into the fall or winter, IMO. Not sure about the stock market as a whole but you may be right, and right about liquidity. I am in no way anybody to discount that. That NG daily chart may be constructive here, but I think it has its work cut out for it. We shall see and I'm quite patient -- my account with trusts in it is back to within 2% of the all-time high which was last December.

I've seen this "racheting" effect many times. Share prices sometimes take hits, even severe ones, but those big dividends just keep coming in. The last couple months I've been buying more shares in trusts -- true compounding at work. Account values fill back in even with reduced share prices. When shares go back up you're suddenly sitting on a fast 10 or 20% gain.

They do have to go back up, and up some more, to make the big money, the fast money, anyway, and that's really dependent on energy prices staying strong or getting stronger. No worldwide depression and all that.

Here's my favorite NG royalty trust:



It's been a tough year. 2001 had a wicked price decline but it wasn't even six months long. Long-term Peyto has had great management and very low costs. It still costs less than $2 per barrel of energy equivalent. The focus is on growth, rather than paying the biggest dividends. Only yields 7% but you can see the huge growth of the prior five years, until a year ago. There have been three really good buying opportunities in the last year, the most recent just ended, IMO.

Best.

Doug

[SilentOne]

Hi doug,

Seasonals are in our favor now.



And I have $NATGAS on a daily buy signal. Here is an interesting chart from Bob Hoye. Some years the early spring rally works, and some years it doesn't.



http://www.321energy...hoye021506.html

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

[SilentOne]

NG ewave here. I agree with the ending diagonal as shown. It marks a major low for NG.



EW - Natural Gas

How's your German?

cheers,

john

[PorkLoin]

Hey John,

Is that five-wave count going down the "C" wave of an ABC from the September high?

If not, then is the current rally "A" of a larger ABC as the red line on the chart? That would mean another five-wave decline to come later, eh?

Just curious -- I don't worry all that much about this stuff when a commodity has such huge percentage swings. It's not like charting the stock market back to 1932, for example, and I think commodities can sometimes have "contained" bull and bear markets without any necessary relation to past price action. (Especially on a constant-Dollar basis.)

Best,

Doug

[SilentOne]

doug, I exited my natural gas trust positions over the last week or so while on vacation. My broker put out a note last week suggesting to lightening up. I did and sold them all in the end. Not the greatest trade but did make money. The consensus is that natural gas inventories need several more weeks to square off. I personally have no idea what the energy sector wants to do here so I am stepping aside. cheers, john

[PorkLoin]

John -- yes, the move up has faltered, eh? Oil has broken down a little, and NG has fallen as well, retracing most of its July rally. I'm taking a long-term view here, and am quite content to sit and collect the trust dividends. Not to say that NG can't go below $5 and that there won't be more dividend cuts and share-price-walloping for trusts heavy on NG. That COT is nasty, IMO, and we may see some gloom-and-doom, and I'd be looking for some good bargains then. ARC Energy Trust, one of my absolute favorites, was down 3% today, losing 93 cents. If it does that about six more times I'm gonna be lovin' it. Economic depression / the end of the energy bull market means the party's over, but as of yet I don't see any strong confirmation that's the case. Best, Doug

[SilentOne]

Hi doug,

Here is a link to one of my brokers. The NG comments are linked at the bottom of their home page.

http://www.rpfl.com/...y.jsp?c=home.en

cheers,

john