Thank you, John.
I agree -- in the near future, next year or two, anyway, the supply/demand picture for NG is not as bullish as it is for oil. Hiker made good points about this earlier this year, and recounted T. Boone Pickens' analysis of it that way, i.e. things are moe bullish for oil overall, in the US.
Had we got more of a rally in NG I was intending to lighten up on NG-heavy trusts, and that's still my intention going into winter, but things may not work out too well there.
Best,
Doug
Canadian Royalty Trusts
Started by
PorkLoin
, Jul 18 2006 10:31 PM
20 replies to this topic
#12
SilentOne
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Posted 05 September 2006 - 03:36 AM
doug,
Here are some oil charts. I don't really follow it too closely right now as I am very focused on PMs. But oil is definitely backing off here. From Trending 123:
I am not sure about this wave count. But the divergences (ie lower MACD high foretold weakness).
Oil broke below the trendline last month to test the brealout level at ~70.
The uptrend lies in the balance. I think oil will trend higher at some point, but for now the pause continues.
cheers,
john
Here are some oil charts. I don't really follow it too closely right now as I am very focused on PMs. But oil is definitely backing off here. From Trending 123:
I am not sure about this wave count. But the divergences (ie lower MACD high foretold weakness).
Oil broke below the trendline last month to test the brealout level at ~70.
The uptrend lies in the balance. I think oil will trend higher at some point, but for now the pause continues.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#13
SilentOne
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Posted 05 September 2006 - 03:40 AM
doug,
Tom's charts posted this past weekend show the same thing.
http://www.quasimodo...mp;Command=1432
I always liked his charts. They were very clear and clean.
cheers,
john
Tom's charts posted this past weekend show the same thing.
http://www.quasimodo...mp;Command=1432
I always liked his charts. They were very clear and clean.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#14
mss
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Posted 05 September 2006 - 06:33 AM
Going to add my thoughts here as to the IT outlook for OIL. The daily chart does not suggest a major price change, bounce around between 66.5-69.5/70.0 in a consolidation phase for a couple weeks.
The weekly does suggest that a break of the trend lines drawn, on a weekly close, will signal a major correction will be under way.
I see "cheap oil" hype by the news media coming for some reason, but long range it will be just that, hype as prices rise to the $100 area down the road.
Best to all,
mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
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#15
PorkLoin
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Posted 08 September 2006 - 01:36 PM
Hi John and Scott,
Yeah - we're in a downtrend for oil prices. The monthly chart below looks pretty nasty with the MACD crossed over. I'd say we can easily go below $60, though it remains to be seen. The "line" chart must only be closes, not the highs and lows during the month.
I thought we were going to get more downside after the decline of summer/fall 2005, but oil turned around and went up some more. We were, IMO, overdue for something like the shakeout in early 2003 or maybe even 2000-2001. So if this happens now it's no big surprise to me.
On owning trust shares - I don't like to be out of the market and missing the dividends. The only time I sold was at Hurricane Katrina, and too early since things went on up for another month. Did get a nice decline into last Oct/Nov to "reload" like a big dog, though.
Natural Gas is now under $6 for the spot price and if we have oil get below $60 I think there will be some great buys among the trusts. I'm letting money pile up in deference to the oil price downtrend. I sat through the declines of 2001 and 2003 and this ain't nuttin' so far. If I'm wrong and we've had a major oil price high with a real bear market to come then I've already hurt myself by not selling, and I'll be cryin' the blues.
Right now, December 2006 through March 2008 NG futures are from $8 to $11, and for crude oil February 2007 is over $70 and the same for the next 40 months or so, some over $78. The sound trusts with good hedging abilities are looking sweet here, IMO, and if they go down to lower share prices, great, as far as I'm concerned.
I still favor oil-heavy trusts over natural gas for the next couple years, and will continue to rebalance things with that in mind. For bargain-hunting - I'd love to see Enerplus and ARC (ERF on NYSE or ERF.UN for Toronto, and AETUF on the US OTC market and AET.UN Toronto) decline enough to make their dividends 10% or so. They're 8.3% and 8.4% right now.
Best,
Doug
Yeah - we're in a downtrend for oil prices. The monthly chart below looks pretty nasty with the MACD crossed over. I'd say we can easily go below $60, though it remains to be seen. The "line" chart must only be closes, not the highs and lows during the month.
I thought we were going to get more downside after the decline of summer/fall 2005, but oil turned around and went up some more. We were, IMO, overdue for something like the shakeout in early 2003 or maybe even 2000-2001. So if this happens now it's no big surprise to me.
On owning trust shares - I don't like to be out of the market and missing the dividends. The only time I sold was at Hurricane Katrina, and too early since things went on up for another month. Did get a nice decline into last Oct/Nov to "reload" like a big dog, though.
Natural Gas is now under $6 for the spot price and if we have oil get below $60 I think there will be some great buys among the trusts. I'm letting money pile up in deference to the oil price downtrend. I sat through the declines of 2001 and 2003 and this ain't nuttin' so far. If I'm wrong and we've had a major oil price high with a real bear market to come then I've already hurt myself by not selling, and I'll be cryin' the blues.
Right now, December 2006 through March 2008 NG futures are from $8 to $11, and for crude oil February 2007 is over $70 and the same for the next 40 months or so, some over $78. The sound trusts with good hedging abilities are looking sweet here, IMO, and if they go down to lower share prices, great, as far as I'm concerned.
I still favor oil-heavy trusts over natural gas for the next couple years, and will continue to rebalance things with that in mind. For bargain-hunting - I'd love to see Enerplus and ARC (ERF on NYSE or ERF.UN for Toronto, and AETUF on the US OTC market and AET.UN Toronto) decline enough to make their dividends 10% or so. They're 8.3% and 8.4% right now.
Best,
Doug
#16
SilentOne
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Posted 11 September 2006 - 04:34 PM
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#17
PorkLoin
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Posted 11 September 2006 - 07:01 PM
Hey John,
I have a lot of respect for Airedale's work. We've certainly busted the steep uptrend that was in effect, and we may be in a decline similar (percentagewise) to early 2003, for example. To the extent that I time this market, I'm letting money build up and will attempt to buy at lower levels. Would love to see panic, capitulation, wash-out lows, etc.
For energy as a whole, and certainly for electric power, uranium, and oil & gas, my focus is very long-term. If we go, say, straight down to below $40 for crude oil then I'll have been stupid to hold. For now, I'm still looking at that $56 - $60 area on the above chart. Holding there or above means all is well, IMO.
Right now, day-by-day it feels tough to go with the supposedly strong seasonal tendencies that should be kicking in around this time of year. Maybe we'll get nothing in that vein. At some point there will be some sort of rally, though, and the character of that rally plus my read of the COT, wave structure, momentum, etc., at that point might provoke me to sell in earnest. If deflation is really coming, then Uh-Oh....
Best,
Doug
#18
SilentOne
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Posted 12 September 2006 - 04:26 AM
doug,
Looking at everything right now (commodities, oil, gold and the SPX), I'd say the energy market is entering a bear phase. Have you noticed the monthly $XOI MACD sell?
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
cheers,
john
Looking at everything right now (commodities, oil, gold and the SPX), I'd say the energy market is entering a bear phase. Have you noticed the monthly $XOI MACD sell?
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#19
PorkLoin
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Posted 12 September 2006 - 07:18 AM
Hi John,
-Yeah, and we could easily hit 900. Whaddayathink -- 750? That same monthly MACD crossover is in effect for $WTIC, XLE and OIH (ouch - look at that chart).
After the post-hurricane Katrina high crude went from roughly 71 to 56. Now we've again gone down 15, and though this decline is steeper, my question is if the whole energy bull is done. I don't think so as of yet. That $56 was a really good buying point, and I'm watching for such again. Commercial futures traders have eased up on their net shorts in crude oil for three weeks in a row, and we'll see. Would OIH be a buy at $100?
With hindsight I wish I'd sold everything at $80 or $78 or $75 but now the trusts are down 10% or more and I'm looking to add to positions rather than sell. This Friday another crop of dividends comes in....
Best,
Doug
-Yeah, and we could easily hit 900. Whaddayathink -- 750? That same monthly MACD crossover is in effect for $WTIC, XLE and OIH (ouch - look at that chart).
After the post-hurricane Katrina high crude went from roughly 71 to 56. Now we've again gone down 15, and though this decline is steeper, my question is if the whole energy bull is done. I don't think so as of yet. That $56 was a really good buying point, and I'm watching for such again. Commercial futures traders have eased up on their net shorts in crude oil for three weeks in a row, and we'll see. Would OIH be a buy at $100?
With hindsight I wish I'd sold everything at $80 or $78 or $75 but now the trusts are down 10% or more and I'm looking to add to positions rather than sell. This Friday another crop of dividends comes in....
Best,
Doug
#20
Vector
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Posted 12 September 2006 - 07:28 AM
P&F charts are tgting $52 for light crude - dovetails with analysis above.
my wag is probably a long drawn-out consolidation period - now carving out the beginning of a large cup and handle (months wide) pattern. zzzzzzzzzzz time.
