6 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Conflicting small guy data so far.

1. FF polls are showing very bearish positions.
2. CPCE is showing mildly bullish positions.
3. Odd-lot is showing very bullish positions.
4. COT is showing some drop in bullish positions of small traders.
5. Rasmussen poll is showing bullish shift.

Won't get AAII or Lowrisk for a few days.

I still think we have at least a day or two downside left. Part of me says it can bounce tuesday because SPX is sitting on trendline. Part of me says get it maximum bearish by breaking that trendline and going to SPX 1390.

I tend to favor the SPX 1390 scenario, because I think we have higher prices going into feb-march.

[dcengr]

To expand on Roger's RSI5 post.. and why I think we have at least another day of sell-off..

This very reliable indicator, RSI5 system, has not issued a buy yet.. RSI5 must go below 30, and it hasn't for DJI or SPX. It has for Qs, but The DJI and SPX still has more correcting to go, before it is deeply sold off.

[bighouse1006]

DC, The TT polls look bullish so far.

[dcengr]

DC,

The TT polls look bullish so far.

What do you mean "looks bullish"? You mean people are carrying more short positions? That's how I'm seeing the data.

Or do you mean people are voting "I feel bullish"?

[bighouse1006]

The opinion polls look like people are leaning more bullish, less short positions. Selecto's Spx poll is looking higher for the week so far. Am I reading this wrong?

[dcengr]

The opinion polls look like people are leaning more bullish, less short positions. Selecto's Spx poll is looking higher for the week so far. Am I reading this wrong?

The reading for tuesday looks neutral to me, and therefore it's probably bearish because people are looking for upside.

But how I make that chart is taking the 5 day MA by summing all bull (opinion+position) divided by total.

You can see its leaning quite bearish. I have to say though that the amount of fully short positions are rather low.

I'm still expecting downside tuesday, maybe into wednesday. The odd-lot cumulative buy-sell is the real puzzle for me. If I don't see that turn down soon and it keeps going up, then I'll likely remain short.

I have SPX 1390 as the potential strong bounce point, but everything's going to be day by day.

[selecto]

"Selecto's Spx poll is looking higher for the week so far."

Selecto's poll is right up there with a coin toss.