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IYR


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#1 hiker

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 05:47 PM

so far, Friday's low looks like a buy point....a sustained move above 82.55 or so may be what is needed to confirm that

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?iyr

unfilled bullish gap was filled by last week's price action

posted this last week....data not updated

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Edited by hiker, 26 December 2006 - 05:50 PM.


#2 kaiser soze

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 06:09 PM

http://stockcharts.c...7182&r=6494.png


hiker,

I am watching IYR pretty closely too, but for a short entry.

The OBV shows clear distribution in Dec. Late Nov and Dec saw IYR almost hit the 3 sigma bollinger band indicating it to be extremely over bought. I am not sure the recent decline has worked off the overbought situation. A visit to the 200 dma may be required. On a fundamental basis, REITS are ridiculously overvalued.

Saving grace ? A very large short position and a huge long position (may or may not be hedged) by many dealers (as of Sep) .

#3 hiker

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 06:54 PM

weekly

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daily

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-----------

REIT's overvalued? Yes, the short ratio in most individual names has been relatively high for many months....sometimes the shorts are proven correct eventually, but that has not occured yet in this 3-year advance.

Here is today's closing basis partial scan of the REIT's with short ratio shown on the far right..only 4 of these were red today:

Symbol Pct from Yr High Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m) Short Ratio
- - - - - ABR Up 0.07% 29.61 Up 0.68 Up 2.35% 53,700 89,267.2 7.7
- - - - - ACC Down 6.72% 28.20 Up 0.10 Up 0.36% 71,700 178,767 8.7
- - - - - AEC Down 17.27% 13.65 Down 0.20 Down 1.44% 24,000 50,709.2 1.7
- - - - - AKR Down 9.33% 24.60 Up 0.26 Up 1.07% 135,400 191,522 6.8
- - - - - AMB Down 8.03% 57.96 Up 0.51 Up 0.89% 307,400 449,853 3.3
- - - - - ARE Down 6.12% 99.00 Up 1.14 Up 1.16% 92,400 170,242 8.8
- - - - - ASN Down 6.90% 56.79 Up 0.39 Up 0.69% 485,800 1,019,670 7.5
- - - - - AVB Down 5.80% 126.79 Up 0.62 Up 0.49% 203,800 315,195 6
- - - - - AZL Down 29.80% 13.26 Up 0.31 Up 2.39% 28,800 60,081.5 0.6
- - - - - BNP Down 0.33% 24.14 0.00 0.00% 0 37,217.2 0.1
- - - - - BRE Down 5.11% 62.91 Up 0.78 Up 1.26% 160,000 387,942 4.2
- - - - - BXP Down 4.51% 112.89 Up 1.02 Up 0.91% 848,600 772,611 4.6
- - - - - CEI Down 18.69% 19.45 Up 0.17 Up 0.88% 301,200 612,500 6.5
- - - - - CLI Down 9.03% 50.37 Up 0.36 Up 0.72% 173,100 415,402 3.1
- - - - - CLP Down 10.77% 46.22 Up 0.36 Up 0.78% 133,200 213,980 7
- - - - - CPT Down 11.10% 72.32 Up 0.92 Up 1.29% 140,800 338,878 3.7
- - - - - CUZ Down 9.88% 34.94 Up 0.21 Up 0.60% 162,500 243,945 12.1
- - - - - DDR Down 6.01% 62.37 Up 0.48 Up 0.78% 428,700 524,092 7.8
- - - - - DLR Down 6.67% 34.82 Up 0.28 Up 0.81% 113,700 376,652 7.6
- - - - - DRE Down 7.08% 40.93 Up 0.40 Up 0.99% 455,600 718,023 7.7
- - - - - EOP Down 2.34% 47.95 Down 0.01 Down 0.02% 1,218,900 3,781,630 8.2
- - - - - EQR Down 18.05% 50.40 Up 0.62 Up 1.25% 698,400 1,489,430 5
- - - - - ESS Down 5.37% 126.80 Up 0.76 Up 0.60% 70,600 151,420 10.8
- - - - - EXR Down 6.47% 17.77 Up 0.12 Up 0.68% 221,800 259,825 14.5
- - - - - FR Down 6.84% 47.15 Up 0.55 Up 1.18% 166,100 330,918 13.8
- - - - - HIW Down 4.14% 39.60 Up 0.22 Up 0.56% 152,700 292,569 9.2
- - - - - HPT Down 7.95% 47.37 Down 0.06 Down 0.13% 673,000 440,205 6.1
- - - - - HST Down 5.97% 24.25 Up 0.05 Up 0.21% 1,181,400 3,365,560 7
- - - - - KIM Down 4.60% 44.96 Up 0.61 Up 1.38% 625,500 981,634 5.2
- - - - - KRC Down 7.94% 77.38 Up 0.51 Up 0.66% 80,800 317,338 3.2
- - - - - KRG Down 5.63% 18.59 Up 0.42 Up 2.31% 102,200 115,043 9.6
- - - - - LRY Down 5.71% 49.50 Up 0.46 Up 0.94% 229,400 450,386 3.1
- - - - - MAC Down 3.58% 83.98 Up 1.41 Up 1.71% 267,400 364,277 5.7
- - - - - MFN Down 19.53% 8.20 0.00 0.00% 13,900 186,426 1.7
- - - - - MNRTA Down 1.75% 8.44 Up 0.12 Up 1.44% 4,040 22,825 0.8
- - - - - MPG Down 9.38% 39.98 Up 0.32 Up 0.81% 123,800 412,075 5.8
- - - - - MSW Down 2.21% 12.85 Up 0.05 Up 0.39% 9,100 32,807.7 1.2
- - - - - NKT Down 8.27% 17.63 Up 0.16 Up 0.92% 175,900 91,895.4 7.7
- - - - - O Down 3.30% 27.51 Up 0.33 Up 1.21% 229,000 597,603 6.1
- - - - - PLD Down 12.01% 59.41 Down 0.17 Down 0.29% 1,027,900 1,248,320 4.4
- - - - - PSA Down 3.22% 94.84 Up 0.71 Up 0.75% 300,000 595,919 4.9
- - - - - PSB Down 5.70% 70.49 Up 0.71 Up 1.02% 43,200 62,148.4 7.4
- - - - - RA Down 8.56% 45.61 Up 0.25 Up 0.55% 1,966,200 2,550,290 2
- - - - - REG Down 5.32% 77.09 Up 1.02 Up 1.34% 128,700 289,539 2.9
- - - - - RYN Down 14.67% 40.53 Up 0.33 Up 0.82% 145,900 314,828 6.8
- - - - - SKT Down 4.19% 38.66 Up 0.41 Up 1.07% 103,500 206,348 9.8
- - - - - SLG Down 9.64% 129.21 Up 1.21 Up 0.95% 348,900 507,434 12.6
- - - - - SPG Down 4.83% 99.05 Up 0.95 Up 0.97% 632,200 1,000,360 10.2
- - - - - SSS Down 4.78% 57.13 Up 0.72 Up 1.28% 41,900 95,515.4 8.2
- - - - - VNO Down 8.60% 120.05 Up 0.09 Up 0.08% 602,600 897,130 6.8
- - - - - YSI Down 10.37% 20.48 Up 0.13 Up 0.64% 194,800 273,088 11.2

Edited by hiker, 26 December 2006 - 06:58 PM.


#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 07:37 PM

The short answer is IYR doesn't have to test that low from a volume perspective. Implied support from the volume low it made on 11/20 - 82.65. That's probably the real price here and you're just seeing some year end profit taking...
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