Jump to content



Photo

Housing Sales


  • Please log in to reply
4 replies to this topic

#1 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,521 posts

Posted 27 December 2006 - 01:41 PM

The much touted 3.4% increase in new home sales in the news today
is Month Over Month increase from last month of October which was
at depressed levels.

Check the following snip from Bloomberg:

The number of homes completed and waiting to be sold rose 51 percent to a record 169,000 in November from the same month last year. Sales of new homes were down 15 percent in November from the same month last year.

A report tomorrow from the National Association of Realtors may show that sales of existing homes in November fell to a 6.19 million pace from 6.24 million the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey


Note that new home sales are DOWN 15% from last year.

So, has housing sales bottomed out? may be or may be not.
My understanding is that beginning in January 2007 a whole bunch of
ARM's will be adjusting upwards. Until that change has taken effect it
is hard to say housing has seen the bottom.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#2 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,934 posts

Posted 27 December 2006 - 01:59 PM

The much touted 3.4% increase in new home sales in the news today
is Month Over Month increase from last month of October which was
at depressed levels.

Check the following snip from Bloomberg:

The number of homes completed and waiting to be sold rose 51 percent to a record 169,000 in November from the same month last year. Sales of new homes were down 15 percent in November from the same month last year.

A report tomorrow from the National Association of Realtors may show that sales of existing homes in November fell to a 6.19 million pace from 6.24 million the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey


Note that new home sales are DOWN 15% from last year.

So, has housing sales bottomed out? may be or may be not.
My understanding is that beginning in January 2007 a whole bunch of
ARM's will be adjusting upwards. Until that change has taken effect it
is hard to say housing has seen the bottom.

If housing market bottomed according to this report, the rate will go higher next year. Let's see how the TNX performing. It looks going higher though. :D

#3 jawndissedi

jawndissedi

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,018 posts

Posted 27 December 2006 - 02:10 PM

If you can tear your eyes away from the comforting sights in the rear view mirror, the data released yesterday by the Mortgage Bankers Association will tell you what the road looks like ahead:

Posted Image
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.

#4 selecto

selecto

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,871 posts

Posted 27 December 2006 - 02:55 PM

I don't know that sales tell much, as there is supposed to be a lot of inventory dumping with costly concessions. What about building permits or starts, that would seem more enlightening. Then there's the Bill and Warren show who are said to have bought housing with both hands at the "bottom" and may continue to add to keep price supported. Do they have the bucks to make a difference?

#5 Data

Data

    Member

  • Validating
  • 2,618 posts

Posted 27 December 2006 - 03:17 PM

Without the seasonal adjustment, sales fell to 72K from 78K the previous month. It's down 16 percent from November 2005. It's all below that of the same month the last three years. When you look at the latest quarter's total sales, it's the lowest figure since 2003 as well. Housing starts are running at a level about 400,000 units per year more than the number of homes being sold. There's too much of a gap to be made up by a recovery in home sales. Construction appears headed for a further slow down imo..