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Election year cycle chart


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#1 johngeorge

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 01:34 PM

Posted ImageName:
Period:
Data:
Method:
Source:
Dow Jones Industrial Average, Election Cycle 1897-2003
18961231 - 20040102
Spot Prices
Growth
Dow Jones

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Peace
johngeorge

#2 VermeerUK

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Posted 01 January 2007 - 05:31 AM

JG, Looking at that 'seasonal' chart....I'd say this election-cycle is out of sync. Last year(2006) looks more like a 'pre-election' year rather than the 'mid-term' year(flat to down) which it in fact was. Wonder what 2007 'the' pre-election year will bring. Just an observation that's all. Regards & Happy New Year...V

#3 paulstan

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Posted 01 January 2007 - 01:02 PM

Some other observations relating to the election year cycle add interest:

1) Over the past forty years or so (10 cycles) there haven't been any losses recorded in the year prior to the election ('07 in this cycle). It has the most positive average return, and has also shown consistently positive returns.

2) the two mid-term years have been marked with very low average returns, but also have been marked with roughly fifty percent positive years, and roughly half of those years generating negative returns.

My personal forecast is we'll see a sizable decline in '07 -- which goes against the patterns over the past forty years.

The statistics above are from my prior analysis on the Dow and S&P -- and I believe are accurate.




The people at birinyi have done some good work analyzing seasonal trends . . . check it out at
http://www.tickersense.typepad.com

"Applying these trends to today, we find that longer-term, the market’s return over the next three months averages about 2%. Over the last five years however, as more investors have anticipated and positioned themselves for the Santa Claus and New Year’s rallies, the market has become less generous, as average returns are now flat. "

#4 deacon

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Posted 01 January 2007 - 03:41 PM

i don't like seasonalcharts dot com, they seem to be at odds with others sometimes

see mrci seasonal charts here:
http://spectrumcommo...arts/index.html

here is a neat seasonal link:
http://www.aarontrad...rategy_Grid.pdf

from the aarontrade link and the following link we have a decently strong up bias for another 8 sessions(such as last year)
i prefer these seasonals on these kind of charts:
http://www.alaron.com/research/dow.htm
http://www.alaronres...image001(1).png

Sy Harding's latest article is on this 3rd yr of presidency topic:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=64500

Eliades and Curry seeing up into march, where we have alot of cyclic turns due:
http://marketviews.t...nels/cycles.htm

#5 TrillionDollarMan

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Posted 03 January 2007 - 03:05 AM

Hadn't seen that chart over there....nice post, thanks! Happy New Year....

TDM

Nice links! Thanks... :)




Some other observations relating to the election year cycle add interest:

1) Over the past forty years or so (10 cycles) there haven't been any losses recorded in the year prior to the election ('07 in this cycle). It has the most positive average return, and has also shown consistently positive returns.

2) the two mid-term years have been marked with very low average returns, but also have been marked with roughly fifty percent positive years, and roughly half of those years generating negative returns.

My personal forecast is we'll see a sizable decline in '07 -- which goes against the patterns over the past forty years.

The statistics above are from my prior analysis on the Dow and S&P -- and I believe are accurate.




The people at birinyi have done some good work analyzing seasonal trends . . . check it out at
http://www.tickersense.typepad.com

"Applying these trends to today, we find that longer-term, the market’s return over the next three months averages about 2%. Over the last five years however, as more investors have anticipated and positioned themselves for the Santa Claus and New Year’s rallies, the market has become less generous, as average returns are now flat. "