"The SPX gained 753 points from January 1995 through the end of 2004 (10 years). But, had you purchased the SPX the day before the last trading day of the month, and exited on the opening of the fifth trading day of the month (and you stayed out of the market the rest of the month), the gains were 820 points. That's right. Those six trading days, on a net basis, led to all the market gains. The remaining 14-16 trading days of the month led nowhere. Sixty-four percent of the trades were successful.
What about the Nasdaq? The gains hold here, too. The Nasdaq 100 has gained 1217 points over the past 10 years. But, buying and selling only over the six-day period showed gains of 1354 points."
http://www.tradingma...32005-42252.cfm
from bernie schaeffer blog
'from the 2005 Stock Trader's Almanac. According to sector seasonality studies done over a period of decades, January should be good for both the semiconductor and banking sectors. Over the period studied (sorry, it doesn't cite the exact period), the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX - 482.15) has gained an average of 8.2 percent in January. The PHLX KBW Banking Index (BKX - 104.36) has a strong positive seasonality stretching from January to May and has gained an average of 8.1 percent over that period. On the other side, the natural gas and utilities sectors have negative average returns. The AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG - 397.54) has lost an average of 3.3 percent in January while the PHLX Utility Index (UTY - 428.00) has slipped an average of 2.4 percent between January and March"
SOX seasonally up +8% in january-almanac
Started by
deacon
, Jan 01 2007 04:07 PM
2 replies to this topic
#2
endisnear
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 439 posts
Member
Posted 01 January 2007 - 04:42 PM
[quote name='deacon' date='Jan 1 2007, 03:07 PM' post='263843']
"The SPX gained 753 points from January 1995 through the end of 2004 (10 years). But, had you purchased the SPX the day before the last trading day of the month, and exited on the opening of the fifth trading day of the month (and you stayed out of the market the rest of the month), the gains were 820 points. That's right. Those six trading days, on a net basis, led to all the market gains. The remaining 14-16 trading days of the month led nowhere. Sixty-four percent of the trades were successful.
What about the Nasdaq? The gains hold here, too. The Nasdaq 100 has gained 1217 points over the past 10 years. But, buying and selling only over the six-day period showed gains of 1354 points."
http://www.tradingma...32005-42252.cfm
from bernie schaeffer blog
'from the 2005 Stock Trader's Almanac. According to sector seasonality studies done over a period of decades, January should be good for both the semiconductor and banking sectors. Over the period studied (sorry, it doesn't cite the exact period), the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX - 482.15) has gained an average of 8.2 percent in January. The PHLX KBW Banking Index (BKX - 104.36) has a strong positive seasonality stretching from January to May and has gained an average of 8.1 percent over that period. On the other side, the natural gas and utilities sectors have negative average returns. The AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG - 397.54) has lost an average of 3.3 percent in January while the PHLX Utility Index (UTY - 428.00) has slipped an average of 2.4 percent between January and March"
[/quotes
Impressive stats..charts looking IT bearish. Everyone beared up so we could get have the mother of all blow offs this month...i suppose.
I think we'll get some unexpectedly good econ and/or retail numbers this week, good news from a chip co. or equip maker, to fry the bears...Cubes look sick but we could be back to mid 44s. It is there I will make my last bearish stand and buy all the puts I can.
Rally h
"The SPX gained 753 points from January 1995 through the end of 2004 (10 years). But, had you purchased the SPX the day before the last trading day of the month, and exited on the opening of the fifth trading day of the month (and you stayed out of the market the rest of the month), the gains were 820 points. That's right. Those six trading days, on a net basis, led to all the market gains. The remaining 14-16 trading days of the month led nowhere. Sixty-four percent of the trades were successful.
What about the Nasdaq? The gains hold here, too. The Nasdaq 100 has gained 1217 points over the past 10 years. But, buying and selling only over the six-day period showed gains of 1354 points."
http://www.tradingma...32005-42252.cfm
from bernie schaeffer blog
'from the 2005 Stock Trader's Almanac. According to sector seasonality studies done over a period of decades, January should be good for both the semiconductor and banking sectors. Over the period studied (sorry, it doesn't cite the exact period), the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX - 482.15) has gained an average of 8.2 percent in January. The PHLX KBW Banking Index (BKX - 104.36) has a strong positive seasonality stretching from January to May and has gained an average of 8.1 percent over that period. On the other side, the natural gas and utilities sectors have negative average returns. The AMEX Natural Gas Index (XNG - 397.54) has lost an average of 3.3 percent in January while the PHLX Utility Index (UTY - 428.00) has slipped an average of 2.4 percent between January and March"
[/quotes
Impressive stats..charts looking IT bearish. Everyone beared up so we could get have the mother of all blow offs this month...i suppose.
I think we'll get some unexpectedly good econ and/or retail numbers this week, good news from a chip co. or equip maker, to fry the bears...Cubes look sick but we could be back to mid 44s. It is there I will make my last bearish stand and buy all the puts I can.
Rally h
#3
deacon
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 563 posts
Member
Posted 11 January 2007 - 10:08 PM
if you took the 1st of year trade it's time to lighten up or pull stops up close
Jason Goepfert:
"A few weeks ago, I mentioned the tendency for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to suffer at least a 5% correction within a 10-day window in January. This has been quite consistent, having occurred in 17 out of the past 20 years.
We started the year with an extreme intraday move lower, which I thought was odd since the index hasn't topped out until the 8th trading day or so on average. Even with the index moving to new highs now, I'm not yet convinced that it's going to scoot through this year without some kind of violent shakeout.
Just as an aside, there have been 10 years where the index closed the first week of trading with a gain of 2% or more, as it did this year. A month later, it was positive only two times, those being 1987 (after which it didn't suffer a meaningful correction until April) and 1997 (after which it began a slide in February).
Seasonality and historical biases can only take us so far, and over the past six months they haven't worked as consistently as in the past. But given the current state of the sentiment figures I follow, and waning longer-term momentum, I'd be surprised (!) if we didn't get more of a scare this month."
http://www.minyanvil...dex.php?a=11924
http://www.cxoadviso...lendar/January/
daily RSI (5) for 1/11/07:
* SPY - 64.4 (neutral)
* DIA - 68.5 (neutral)
* IWM - 60.5 (neutral)
* QQQQ - 86.5 (very overbought)
* OIH - 9.10 (very oversold)
Jason Goepfert:
"A few weeks ago, I mentioned the tendency for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to suffer at least a 5% correction within a 10-day window in January. This has been quite consistent, having occurred in 17 out of the past 20 years.
We started the year with an extreme intraday move lower, which I thought was odd since the index hasn't topped out until the 8th trading day or so on average. Even with the index moving to new highs now, I'm not yet convinced that it's going to scoot through this year without some kind of violent shakeout.
Just as an aside, there have been 10 years where the index closed the first week of trading with a gain of 2% or more, as it did this year. A month later, it was positive only two times, those being 1987 (after which it didn't suffer a meaningful correction until April) and 1997 (after which it began a slide in February).
Seasonality and historical biases can only take us so far, and over the past six months they haven't worked as consistently as in the past. But given the current state of the sentiment figures I follow, and waning longer-term momentum, I'd be surprised (!) if we didn't get more of a scare this month."
http://www.minyanvil...dex.php?a=11924
http://www.cxoadviso...lendar/January/
daily RSI (5) for 1/11/07:
* SPY - 64.4 (neutral)
* DIA - 68.5 (neutral)
* IWM - 60.5 (neutral)
* QQQQ - 86.5 (very overbought)
* OIH - 9.10 (very oversold)
