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Was this a classic volatile top ?


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#1 CLK

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Posted 03 January 2007 - 07:29 PM

I remember this type of action at tops couple years ago. I checked 1995, the slope of the uptrend is much steeper now than then, which could mean a fast 50% pullback from the July lows.

#2 kaiser soze

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Posted 03 January 2007 - 07:47 PM

I personally expect wide swinging roller coaster action. But then Jack Schwager (of market wizards fame) places a lot of emphasis in his TA book on wide ranging days after large run-ups in price as indicators of major trend reversals. So, the wide range today on all major indices maybe telling us the top is in or is atleast very close-by. Per my data provider, SPY had widest intraday range since June 15th. I was looking at the SEC flings and a lot of inventory (especially ETFs) is in strong hands who bought in June & July. So,a 50% retracement of the entire run-up is unlikely. But a trip to the 50 DMA for the large cap indices and maybe the 200 DMA for Qs and the semis is well within the realm of possibility IMHO.