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confusing broken parabolics with a recession


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#1 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 03:52 PM

Lots of talk lately about the decline in copper/crude as a precursor to a recession and a bear mkt in stocks. Here is my take on the commodity implosion. I believe the commodity parabolics started right around mid 2005 amidst the supply shocks due to Hurricane Katrina etc. All parabolics end badly and this is what we are seeing with copper/crude and will see with gold/silver shortly. I expect these commodities to bottom around their 200 week MA's. The current decline in copper/crude is just post parabolic "coming back down earth" action and bears no correlation to current economic conditions. There is also a odd year cycle in commodities with a bottom in 2001, 2003, 2005 and now 2007. A very choppy decline into their respective 200 week ma sometime this year would be a brain dead buy, imo
*previously known as pnfwave

#2 Sentient Being

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 04:05 PM

I'm clearly not as well educated on these matters as you. But what you say makes a lot of sense to me. I'm afraid it goes to the idea of not only nowing what tends to happen first in the charts, but knowing WHY it's happening. I've always felt that people who had a really solid grasp on what is going on in the economy and why make better technical traders. As usual, people who are willing to do the hard work, thinking, tend to get ahead?
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

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#3 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 10:24 PM

I'm clearly not as well educated on these matters as you. But what you say makes a lot of sense to me.

I'm afraid it goes to the idea of not only nowing what tends to happen first in the charts, but knowing WHY it's happening.

I've always felt that people who had a really solid grasp on what is going on in the economy and why make better technical traders. As usual, people who are willing to do the hard work, thinking, tend to get ahead?

its really not a matter of "education", when i see a chart or comment more than 3 times in 3 different places, my contrarian radar kicks into gear, right now the idea of a "copper top" is quite popular with the scare bear crowd so on a contrarian basis its nothing to worry about unless your long copper. Same with the tonnage chart which is also making its rounds on the various sites i visit, just another prop in the scare bear fright fest.
*previously known as pnfwave

#4 Vector

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 10:32 PM

I'm clearly not as well educated on these matters as you. But what you say makes a lot of sense to me.

I'm afraid it goes to the idea of not only nowing what tends to happen first in the charts, but knowing WHY it's happening.

I've always felt that people who had a really solid grasp on what is going on in the economy and why make better technical traders. As usual, people who are willing to do the hard work, thinking, tend to get ahead?

its really not a matter of "education", when i see a chart or comment more than 3 times in 3 different places, my contrarian radar kicks into gear, right now the idea of a "copper top" is quite popular with the scare bear crowd so on a contrarian basis its nothing to worry about unless your long copper. Same with the tonnage chart which is also making its rounds on the various sites i visit, just another prop in the scare bear fright fest.


that's exactly what happened sentiment-wise going into the May 2005 bottom in PM shares then WHAMMO!

PSYCH! :lol:

http://www.gold-eagl.../goldheart.html

I was following the above at that time and knew better.

Edited by Vector, 06 January 2007 - 10:36 PM.


#5 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 10:42 PM

http://www.gold-eagl.../goldheart.html



thks for the link, excellent PM charts.
*previously known as pnfwave

#6 Vector

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Posted 07 January 2007 - 12:21 AM

you're very welcome B)