4 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

I know some of you study price patterns and fractals.

I ran into this software which may or may not occupy your sunday afternoon but nevertheless is interesting.

I would recommend you get the "stand alone version", though those that are more technically inclined can opt for scilab (vs matlab which is not free) and muddle your way from converting the various matlab files of fraclab into scilab.

FracLab

[Rogerdodger]

I wonder what the success rate is in deciphering fractals? I believe that history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. I have seen gamblers in Vegas write down previous roulette or craps results looking for a playable "pattern". They usually are not dressed or groomed very well. They remind me of the brilliant but schizophrenic Russell Crowe in "a Beautiful Mind" looking for a mathmatical formula in a football game. Is it the same with fractals? I wonder.

[dcengr]

I wonder what the success rate is in deciphering fractals?
I believe that history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
I have seen gamblers in Vegas write down previous roulette or craps results looking for a playable "pattern". They usually are not dressed or groomed very well.
They remind me of the brilliant but schizophrenic Russell Crowe in "a Beautiful Mind" looking for a mathmatical formula in a football game.
Is it the same with fractals? I wonder.

I don't believe price patterns alone can map out the future.

PTJ once thought the 87 crash was going to take us into a new era of depression. He basically used pattern match to predict the crash, but it turned out that 87 was part of a larger wave 3 heading into the 2000 top (or if you believe Da Chief, part of a larger wave 1).

Fragments of patterns repeat, IMO, and one must know when that fragment has ended. A key tool in this, is likely sentiment analysis.

When 87 crashed, and PTJ thought it would head lower and it did not, many recognized the similarity to 87 and 29 pattern and went extremely bearish. Hence that provided a cushion that prevented any more slide.

So one must have a road map and know where you are on the road. Pattern analysis maybe the roadmap, sentiment analysis maybe the GPS that tells you where you are on that road.

If the GPS tells you you're no longer on the same map, then you must break out a new map.

Its also likely that PTJ uses economics as sort of GPS as well. How he does that, I'm not sure.

Theres other GPS measurements.. like moneyflow (a-d line), option positions, fed repos.

Fractal analysis is probably the first part in at least sucking out a bunch of price patterns to make the map.

Edited by dcengr, 07 January 2007 - 03:42 PM.

[Tor]

Forgive me forasking, but how do you actually install it after downloading? Can seem to get it to work.

[dcengr]

Forgive me forasking, but how do you actually install it after downloading?

Can seem to get it to work.

Stand alone version? You just run it.. it installs a matlab runtime version, then it installs the main program...