4 replies to this topic

[phloat]

Oct 4th had posted with regards to crude, easy to come back and brag .. but I assure you
I thought that 57.50 was the bottom ..

http://www.traders-t...?...c=60428&hl=


would like some input on what folks here think. My feel is we put in a firm bottom in the
47.50-48.50 if 52.50 is crossed on a closing basis. Retesting the highs, or resuming a strong bull
run in my opinion is far far away .. Need to see 65-66+ to confirm this.

IMHO if 47.50 is crossed closing basis, high 30s low 40s in short order.

[Sentient Being]

Does that mean you have flipped from being fairly bullish to being fairly bearish? I've got an oil/gas position and may have to abandon it.

[PorkLoin]

I had been thinking that the $57 area could mark a bottom, considering the highs and lows around there in 2005. Well, we sliced through that and the persistence of trends, both up and down, can be surprising.



I'm not trying to time the market but this makes me think we have more to go on the downside. For new buys and adding to long term positions I'm waiting....


Best,

Doug

[phloat]

Does that mean you have flipped from being fairly bullish to being fairly bearish? I've got an oil/gas position and may have to abandon it.

I was fairly bullish, because I had an IT target of 57.50 on the first decline. Could not be sure where we would bounce to, and if this would lead to resumption of the bull. The fact that it had so much difficulty clearing 64-65 extended my bearishness for a re test of 57.40 failure of which to hold has produced the high 40s IT target.


I expect a small reaction to high 50s first though. Roughly 59 ish. So similarly any dificulty to get there will signal mini melt down through 52.50 to 47.50 at which point I will reasses.

to be clear personally I lean to bearish overall, and i think we hit high 40s whithin 2 weeks, and possibly even go toward a complete breakdown and into the high 30s


I play it as it goes

[arbman]

I think a trading range for the early 2007 and a final decline toward the first half of 2008 to mid 40s.