Shorting March ES
#1
Posted 11 January 2007 - 11:16 AM
#2
Posted 11 January 2007 - 11:19 AM
I almost pulled the plug on my short trade in the nq's when i saw a short post, but given your track record i think i'll stay the course, hopefully were not shorting a rocketship " to da moon"...Shorting the March ES futures at 1435.00, using a 20 point stop for the moment. New highs in the NDX unconfirmed by other indices, and other indicators, gives me a divergence worth trying to exploit. Will tighten the stop later provided I have the opportunity.
IT
#3
Posted 11 January 2007 - 11:22 AM
#4
Posted 11 January 2007 - 11:30 AM
#5
Posted 11 January 2007 - 11:38 AM
Index...
You may want to wait until later today. We have approximately 4-1 breadth and halftime is approaching!
The last signal was a negative one a few days ago and although it wasn't profitable I was able to close out the EOD short flat. Surprisingly, it was the first such "Overwhelming Breadth Day Trade" signal that hasn't produced a profit in a long while. We could always see a turn during the second half but typically I've found this type of breadth is a very reliable sign that big money is at work in the market that day and the whole day will be required to deploy their capital. If the signal were to fail today I would consider it a fairly significant failure.
Too late....already made the trade. I'm aware of the breadth, and that the odds favor more strength here. This isn't a day trade. I'm trying to position myself for weakness later on. Two ways to look at this...divergence between NDX and SPX which resolves down. Or NDX leading the SPX up... I chose the first...we'll see what develops.
IT
#6
Posted 11 January 2007 - 12:12 PM
Edited by kisacik, 11 January 2007 - 12:17 PM.
#7
Posted 11 January 2007 - 01:16 PM
#8
Posted 11 January 2007 - 02:08 PM
Yes, you got it about right. I am hanging on to my 25% long
position through march.
You know the biggest problem at the moment is the bullish speculation, the equity P/C is 0.53, the OEX P/C is 1.8. The overall P/C is 0.69. These are generally IT bearish, so the market pulled back right away. I am afraid this kind of setup might not be enough to provide considerable upside...