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If this closes here.


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#1 securelstmile

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 02:57 PM

I guess I should wait for the close to post this because it is always the close that counts but at least it is something to watch.


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#2 Cirrus

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 02:59 PM

The weekly chart of the SP400 and Rut 2000 look like they could easily make volatility breakouts that last a few weeks.

#3 securelstmile

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 03:01 PM

I have been bullish for a long time but was starting to get bearish. I have been playing things one day at a time but this just has me scratching my head. There is just no way to interpret a close under 50 especially on such solid but not exhaustive volume as anything but very bad for the bears.
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#4 hiker

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 03:05 PM

SS - if you have access to Ken Tower's TA comments thru a Schwab trader friend...he addresses this head scratcher two possible resolutions to the upside targets being tested today...see his a.m. comments

#5 securelstmile

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 03:10 PM

SS - if you have access to Ken Tower's TA comments thru a Schwab trader friend...he addresses this head scratcher two possible resolutions to the upside targets being tested today...see his a.m. comments



I will check it out.

This guy has been pretty good in his calls. Some of his views that I have read over time remind me of things fib has said. Ah ha, fib do you have a twin. I think if it just that old thing I like to call wisdom of the experienced trader.

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#6 Cirrus

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 03:17 PM

I think one of the most valuable indicator is the VXO. I like the VXO a little better than the VIX as there's more history there. Options pricing is set by the market and the biggest of the big institutions. Volatility pricing is saying that risk is relatively low. The SP100 broke out on the 5th, 8th and 10th but the VXO failed to set a lower low on the B/O. Comparing the charts of the VXO and SP100 the volatility seemed to lead a little or at least warn. I simply don't think we see a major correction with volatility starting from these levels. The market isn't even wounded yet. I think we need volatility to work a little higher before we get our correction. I simply don't see volaitily that mispriced thus I think we need to see some damage done to the market before a down move. Usually there is enough evidence in front of a tradeable selloff for a nimble trader to trade the "meat" of such a selloff. Right now there is virtually no technical or internal evidence of an iminent selloff. There is plenty of other circumstantial evidence that the IT risk is high as I've posted earlier. However, price still isn't listening.

#7 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 11 January 2007 - 03:43 PM

I think one of the most valuable indicator is the VXO. I like the VXO a little better than the VIX as there's more history there.

Options pricing is set by the market and the biggest of the big institutions. Volatility pricing is saying that risk is relatively low. The SP100 broke out on the 5th, 8th and 10th but the VXO failed to set a lower low on the B/O. Comparing the charts of the VXO and SP100 the volatility seemed to lead a little or at least warn.

I simply don't think we see a major correction with volatility starting from these levels. The market isn't even wounded yet. I think we need volatility to work a little higher before we get our correction. I simply don't see volaitily that mispriced thus I think we need to see some damage done to the market before a down move. Usually there is enough evidence in front of a tradeable selloff for a nimble trader to trade the "meat" of such a selloff. Right now there is virtually no technical or internal evidence of an iminent selloff. There is plenty of other circumstantial evidence that the IT risk is high as I've posted earlier. However, price still isn't listening.


I use VXO here also. I will be paying close attention to VXO and how it performs with respect to the indicies. If VXO falls when the market rises it should be normal trading ( make money on the ups and downs ). If VXO rises and the market rises we are in for an extended upswing. There has been some illusion to this starting, but the market goes big like today we fall in volatility the rise is in question. Then again, tomorrow is a new day.... I don't see weakness in the price currently, but I also don't see us at a low enough point to build a good rally.

One the QQQQ's we are at Monthly and Quarterly Resistance which will be difficult to break. I am assuming that Sales in technology are not that great for the quarter, just looking at Semiconductors, so I believe this is a pump and dump into earnings. I'm short here and sweating it out.

Barry