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intel earning - is it good for bears?


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#1 greenie

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:08 PM

I typically do not care much about the earning number, but how the media reacts about it. I see the headline 'Intel earning plummets 39%' everywhere, including Forbes. Typically, media is negative at the bottom and highly optimistic at the top. What is going on?
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It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#2 endisnear

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:13 PM

da big boyz r short..datz what... Proceed to short at will.

#3 briarberry

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:17 PM

short the short squeeze :)

#4 IndexTrader

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:26 PM

There's two ways to report earnings: 1) Report the number and compare it to last year. 2) Report the number and compare it to what was expected by analysts. Your 39% compares to last year. Earnings were approximately what was expected. More important is what the company says in my opinion on their conference call. IT

#5 greenie

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:41 PM

There's two ways to report earnings:

1) Report the number and compare it to last year.

2) Report the number and compare it to what was expected by analysts.

Your 39% compares to last year. Earnings were approximately what was expected. More important is what the company says in my opinion on their conference call.

IT


Thanks IT. What I was wondering about is why the media is painting a negative picture of Intel? They could as well report 'intel beats analyst estimate' or 'intel earning 13% up from last quarter'.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#6 dcengr

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:50 PM

There's two ways to report earnings:

1) Report the number and compare it to last year.

2) Report the number and compare it to what was expected by analysts.

Your 39% compares to last year. Earnings were approximately what was expected. More important is what the company says in my opinion on their conference call.

IT


Thanks IT. What I was wondering about is why the media is painting a negative picture of Intel? They could as well report 'intel beats analyst estimate' or 'intel earning 13% up from last quarter'.


It means media is still too bearish, and thats bullish.
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#7 IndexTrader

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:53 PM

There's two ways to report earnings:

1) Report the number and compare it to last year.

2) Report the number and compare it to what was expected by analysts.

Your 39% compares to last year. Earnings were approximately what was expected. More important is what the company says in my opinion on their conference call.

IT


Thanks IT. What I was wondering about is why the media is painting a negative picture of Intel? They could as well report 'intel beats analyst estimate' or 'intel earning 13% up from last quarter'.


You know, that's a good question. Usually the earnings are not compared with the prior year. On briefing.com for instance, they compared relative to the expectations. When I saw your post I really didn't believe it at first...until I went to bloomberg and saw it with my own eyes. Market watch did the same thing.

Meanwhile, the .26 they report compares with First Call estimates of .25...unless there was something in the .26 that shouldn't be there. Sales were down a little from the expectation, which may well be part of the problem too.

But why the headline comparing to last year on Bloomberg and MarketWatch? Good question.

IT

#8 Rogerdodger

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:57 PM

Biggest scam going: "Beat by a penny" the lowered estimates (which they get from the company anyway.)

Usually the earnings are not compared with the prior year. On briefing.com for instance, they compared relative to the expectations. When I saw your post I really didn't believe it at first...until I went to bloomberg and saw it with my own eyes.


What does this mean, if anything?
INTC's "double top" is on higher volume.
Today's SPX "double" top (or breakout) <_< was on lower volume.
http://stockcharts.c...4787&r=3643.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=6&i=p55228913142&a=94947965&r=20.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 January 2007 - 06:03 PM.


#9 greenie

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 06:20 PM

You know, that's a good question. Usually the earnings are not compared with the prior year. On briefing.com for instance, they compared relative to the expectations. When I saw your post I really didn't believe it at first...until I went to bloomberg and saw it with my own eyes. Market watch did the same thing.

Meanwhile, the .26 they report compares with First Call estimates of .25...unless there was something in the .26 that shouldn't be there. Sales were down a little from the expectation, which may well be part of the problem too.

But why the headline comparing to last year on Bloomberg and MarketWatch? Good question.

IT



If you got to yahoo finance, this is the headline "Intel Profit Dips 39 Pct., Beats View
AP - Intel Corp.'s fourth-quarter profit plunged 39 percent as the world's largest chip maker endured a painful price war with much-smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and continued to pay for a massive restructuring."

'plunge', 'dips 39 pct' - these are the headlines for a bear market bottom. Something is wrong.

Only explanation I have is that they want some cheap INTC to be pumped up for vista release party.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#10 dcengr

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 06:25 PM

Only explanation I have is that they want some cheap INTC to be pumped up for vista release party.


Yup.

After Wave 5 comes Wave A, then up it goes for Wave B, as I layed out in my blog.

Wave B will be the sucker rally top.. maybe.
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