Most powerful 3rd wave in the history of mankind
#1
Posted 20 January 2007 - 09:53 PM
I think Elliott would roll over in his grave about now.
The chart below shows most of your well known indices and what they've been up to. With the exception of the Dow, S&P500, and OEX, the other major indices are not much higher than where they were back in may 06. Of particular interest is that since about mid november, all but the large caps have gone sideways.
This is clearly a problem here, as bullish percent is rather high right now, which implies many participants have their $ in the market. Looking at the state of things, it would appear the "many" has concentrated into few sectors (namely large caps). I think I know why XD keeps repeating "its getting gross".
The mystery, to me, however, is that NYA keeps advancing but with good breadth. I can see how the price of NYA can advance because large caps are advancing.. but to have good breadth, majority of the stocks would have to participate (ie continuing to advance in price). Now these other sectors.. they're not advancing in price that I can see.. so something is amiss here. You CAN have price stay steady with increasing A-D cumulative line by having more advancing days with smaller percent than declining days with larger declining percents. I don't know if thats whats going on, but one can clearly see "there's something wrong here".
#2
Posted 20 January 2007 - 10:05 PM
#3
Posted 20 January 2007 - 10:17 PM
and if you have been keeping tabs on the weekly ad line of the primary market....its been melting up since march 2000.....
You da man, cheif .
#4
Posted 21 January 2007 - 05:50 AM
Broad participation.. powerful.. awe inspiring. These are the words I would use to describe this epicenter of primary wave 3 as all stocks participate in jaw dropping action.
I think Elliott would roll over in his grave about now.
The chart below shows most of your well known indices and what they've been up to. With the exception of the Dow, S&P500, and OEX, the other major indices are not much higher than where they were back in may 06. Of particular interest is that since about mid november, all but the large caps have gone sideways.
This is clearly a problem here, as bullish percent is rather high right now, which implies many participants have their $ in the market. Looking at the state of things, it would appear the "many" has concentrated into few sectors (namely large caps). I think I know why XD keeps repeating "its getting gross".
The mystery, to me, however, is that NYA keeps advancing but with good breadth. I can see how the price of NYA can advance because large caps are advancing.. but to have good breadth, majority of the stocks would have to participate (ie continuing to advance in price). Now these other sectors.. they're not advancing in price that I can see.. so something is amiss here. You CAN have price stay steady with increasing A-D cumulative line by having more advancing days with smaller percent than declining days with larger declining percents. I don't know if thats whats going on, but one can clearly see "there's something wrong here".
it's happening and you don't see it. IMO there is little understanding of various methods of index construction and their effect on the portrayals they create.
1700 stocks, including all the INDU, SP500, NDX, and more. all equally weighted. .........
Edited by airedale88, 21 January 2007 - 05:51 AM.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#5
Posted 21 January 2007 - 10:45 AM
#6
Posted 21 January 2007 - 12:11 PM
whoops. wrong chart.Broad participation.. powerful.. awe inspiring. These are the words I would use to describe this epicenter of primary wave 3 as all stocks participate in jaw dropping action.
I think Elliott would roll over in his grave about now.
The chart below shows most of your well known indices and what they've been up to. With the exception of the Dow, S&P500, and OEX, the other major indices are not much higher than where they were back in may 06. Of particular interest is that since about mid november, all but the large caps have gone sideways.
This is clearly a problem here, as bullish percent is rather high right now, which implies many participants have their $ in the market. Looking at the state of things, it would appear the "many" has concentrated into few sectors (namely large caps). I think I know why XD keeps repeating "its getting gross".
The mystery, to me, however, is that NYA keeps advancing but with good breadth. I can see how the price of NYA can advance because large caps are advancing.. but to have good breadth, majority of the stocks would have to participate (ie continuing to advance in price). Now these other sectors.. they're not advancing in price that I can see.. so something is amiss here. You CAN have price stay steady with increasing A-D cumulative line by having more advancing days with smaller percent than declining days with larger declining percents. I don't know if thats whats going on, but one can clearly see "there's something wrong here".
it's happening and you don't see it. IMO there is little understanding of various methods of index construction and their effect on the portrayals they create.
1700 stocks, including all the INDU, SP500, NDX, and more. all equally weighted. .........
here it is........
.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#7
Posted 21 January 2007 - 01:12 PM
whoops. wrong chart.
Broad participation.. powerful.. awe inspiring. These are the words I would use to describe this epicenter of primary wave 3 as all stocks participate in jaw dropping action.
I think Elliott would roll over in his grave about now.
The chart below shows most of your well known indices and what they've been up to. With the exception of the Dow, S&P500, and OEX, the other major indices are not much higher than where they were back in may 06. Of particular interest is that since about mid november, all but the large caps have gone sideways.
This is clearly a problem here, as bullish percent is rather high right now, which implies many participants have their $ in the market. Looking at the state of things, it would appear the "many" has concentrated into few sectors (namely large caps). I think I know why XD keeps repeating "its getting gross".
The mystery, to me, however, is that NYA keeps advancing but with good breadth. I can see how the price of NYA can advance because large caps are advancing.. but to have good breadth, majority of the stocks would have to participate (ie continuing to advance in price). Now these other sectors.. they're not advancing in price that I can see.. so something is amiss here. You CAN have price stay steady with increasing A-D cumulative line by having more advancing days with smaller percent than declining days with larger declining percents. I don't know if thats whats going on, but one can clearly see "there's something wrong here".
it's happening and you don't see it. IMO there is little understanding of various methods of index construction and their effect on the portrayals they create.
1700 stocks, including all the INDU, SP500, NDX, and more. all equally weighted. .........
here it is........
.
Yes airdale, that chart looks very similar to the A-D cumulative line. Do you know if there's one constructed similar to that, but include more stocks.. say 5000?
#8
Posted 21 January 2007 - 01:52 PM
Edited by Caduceus, 21 January 2007 - 02:00 PM.
#9
Posted 21 January 2007 - 04:00 PM
Broad participation.. powerful.. awe inspiring. These are the words I would use to describe this epicenter of primary wave 3 as all stocks participate in jaw dropping action.
I think Elliott would roll over in his grave about now.
The chart below shows most of your well known indices and what they've been up to. With the exception of the Dow, S&P500, and OEX, the other major indices are not much higher than where they were back in may 06. Of particular interest is that since about mid november, all but the large caps have gone sideways.
This is clearly a problem here, as bullish percent is rather high right now, which implies many participants have their $ in the market. Looking at the state of things, it would appear the "many" has concentrated into few sectors (namely large caps). I think I know why XD keeps repeating "its getting gross".
The mystery, to me, however, is that NYA keeps advancing but with good breadth. I can see how the price of NYA can advance because large caps are advancing.. but to have good breadth, majority of the stocks would have to participate (ie continuing to advance in price). Now these other sectors.. they're not advancing in price that I can see.. so something is amiss here. You CAN have price stay steady with increasing A-D cumulative line by having more advancing days with smaller percent than declining days with larger declining percents. I don't know if thats whats going on, but one can clearly see "there's something wrong here".
Small and mid cap bull market which began in 1998 is over.
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.