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#1 greenie

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:06 PM

I am now in Calcutta (India). I grew up in this city and visit every two years. I did not see much changes In my previous trips. The commie government that we elected from 1970s (democracy where one party always won the election for 36 years) screwed the state thoroughly. Calcutta was the British powerhouse, but all industries left since then. This time I am amazed by seeing the amount of changes. I cannot tell you how many new condo towers are under construction. There was a highway built when I went to high-school. It was a bit outside the city connecting north and south so that one did not need to go through the crowded center. Even in 2002, the places around the highway were so empty that people used to get scared driving on it at night. If you got stranded, thugs would have eaten you alive. Now, the entire stretch of the highway is filled with highrise buildings, complete or under construction. The places with no houses are filled with giant billboards with ads, and 2 out of 3 ads are about buying a new home. The local newspapers are now filled with housing-related ads and discussion. Every other block of our part of the city has a new bank now. In a part of the city, where there were only 2 branches of ICICI bank, now there are almost 30 (could be more). Citibank used to be an exclusive foreign bank with only one branch in the entire Calcutta, and you needed to wear good clothes to enter, or otherwise could be turned away by the doorman. Now, there are more citibanks than tea shops in the city. What else is new? Mortgages, of course. This word was almost unheard of when we were young. My dad built his house over 15 years. When he saved enough, we got a second and then a third floor. Not any more. Even worse, the local newspaper is discussing topics like 'reverse mortgage' - a devious way devised to trap older people into debt prison. All I can say is this is insane. I now have no doubt that we are entering a worldwide depression. How fast is the question.
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#2 dcengr

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:15 PM

This is what happened in Japan. Their depression didn't stop them from progressing. Their 50 year mortgages didn't either. I think you are expecting armageddon, but my guess is the world will move forward. Technology is too good now for people to be fighting over farm land (ie the reason why Hitler wanted to invade). Plenty of food for everyone. The one issue that needs to be fixed is energy.. That might be the next catalyst for the next bull market, the quest for alternative energy. But maybe after at least some bloodiness on the western world's side when it learns the cost of just "taking it" is too high.
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#3 A-ha

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:17 PM

I was in Turkey this weekend. They will rebuild entire Istanbul (Constantinapolis) in a couple of years without spending a dime. Due to the possibility of a strong earthquake. They will build higher and larger buildings with more residency that will pay the expenses. And Istanbul stock exchange is flying ... All time highs today.

#4 Tor

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:17 PM

I am now in Calcutta (India). I grew up in this city and visit every two years.

I did not see much changes In my previous trips. The commie government that we elected from 1970s (democracy where one party always won the election for 36 years) screwed the state thoroughly. Calcutta was the British powerhouse, but all industries left since then.

This time I am amazed by seeing the amount of changes. I cannot tell you how many new condo towers are under construction. There was a highway built when I went to high-school. It was a bit outside the city connecting north and south so that one did not need to go through the crowded center. Even in 2002, the places around the highway were so empty that people used to get scared driving on it at night. If you got stranded, thugs would have eaten you alive.


Now, the entire stretch of the highway is filled with highrise buildings, complete or under construction. The places with no houses are filled with giant billboards with ads, and 2 out of 3 ads are about buying a new home.

The local newspapers are now filled with housing-related ads and discussion. Every other block of our part of the city has a new bank now. In a part of the city, where there were only 2 branches of ICICI bank, now there are almost 30 (could be more). Citibank used to be an exclusive foreign bank with only one branch in the entire Calcutta, and you needed to wear good clothes to enter, or otherwise could be turned away by the doorman. Now, there are more citibanks than tea shops in the city.

What else is new? Mortgages, of course. This word was almost unheard of when we were young. My dad built his house over 15 years. When he saved enough, we got a second and then a third floor. Not any more. Even worse, the local newspaper is discussing topics like 'reverse mortgage' - a devious way devised to trap older people into debt prison.

All I can say is this is insane. I now have no doubt that we are entering a worldwide depression. How fast is the question.


Asian crisis started with a collaspe in Thai property. Interestign times.
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#5 greenie

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:39 PM

This is what happened in Japan. Their depression didn't stop them from progressing.


Do you know that the Japanese economy topped 10 years before USA/Britain in the 1920s also ? Interesting times ahead.
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It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#6 dcengr

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:48 PM

This is what happened in Japan. Their depression didn't stop them from progressing.


Do you know that the Japanese economy topped 10 years before USA/Britain in the 1920s also ? Interesting times ahead.


No, but they seem to be fine and advancing. Cities weren't burning the last time I checked.
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#7 IndexTrader

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 02:22 PM

I am now in Calcutta (India). I grew up in this city and visit every two years.

I did not see much changes In my previous trips. The commie government that we elected from 1970s (democracy where one party always won the election for 36 years) screwed the state thoroughly. Calcutta was the British powerhouse, but all industries left since then.

This time I am amazed by seeing the amount of changes. I cannot tell you how many new condo towers are under construction. There was a highway built when I went to high-school. It was a bit outside the city connecting north and south so that one did not need to go through the crowded center. Even in 2002, the places around the highway were so empty that people used to get scared driving on it at night. If you got stranded, thugs would have eaten you alive.


Now, the entire stretch of the highway is filled with highrise buildings, complete or under construction. The places with no houses are filled with giant billboards with ads, and 2 out of 3 ads are about buying a new home.

The local newspapers are now filled with housing-related ads and discussion. Every other block of our part of the city has a new bank now. In a part of the city, where there were only 2 branches of ICICI bank, now there are almost 30 (could be more). Citibank used to be an exclusive foreign bank with only one branch in the entire Calcutta, and you needed to wear good clothes to enter, or otherwise could be turned away by the doorman. Now, there are more citibanks than tea shops in the city.

What else is new? Mortgages, of course. This word was almost unheard of when we were young. My dad built his house over 15 years. When he saved enough, we got a second and then a third floor. Not any more. Even worse, the local newspaper is discussing topics like 'reverse mortgage' - a devious way devised to trap older people into debt prison.

All I can say is this is insane. I now have no doubt that we are entering a worldwide depression. How fast is the question.


No question about it....prosperity, owning your own home, moving to a more modern economy, change...obviously leads to a depression. :lol:

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Edited by IndexTrader, 22 January 2007 - 02:23 PM.


#8 pdx5

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 02:51 PM

<<<<No question about it....prosperity, owning your own home, moving to a more modern economy, change...obviously leads to a depression. >>> Yea really :D No question that availability of credit speeds up and stimulates the economy by allowing borrowers to buy homes and cars and other goodies. The only caveat is EXCESS & EASY credit. Such as sub-prime mortgages with no money down and adjustrable rates etc. When that happens, real-estate gets higher than what is rational and that leads to a bubble burst. Japan did experience such a real-estate collapse. Japan stock market is still below its all time high reached a dozen years ago. But it is certainly did not cause depression and armageddon in Japan. Just a simple rettrenchment to more rational levels is all they needed and got it.
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#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 04:34 PM

And it lasted longer than it needed to--much like our depression did--because government slowed the liquidation and diverted much needed cash from productive uses to non-productive "public works". I mean, how smooth does a road have to be? M

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