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Qs lose SMA 20, SMA 50, RSI 50


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#1 dcengr

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 04:52 PM

With today's price drop, we have the Qs closing below SMA 20, SMA 50, and RSI 50.

But RSI5 < 30, which gives it a buy signal. This signal is 70% good trade (buy RSI5< 30, sell RSI5>50). If the market cannot rally tomorrow, this would show considerable weakness in Qs.

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#2 arbman

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 07:12 PM

The decline on the Qs started to resemble to an island reversal now, nobody mentioned about it, so I thought it is worth to point out. The psychology of the quick rally on the Apple news and the subsequent disappointment in many tech issues, and in fact the sinking feeling about Apple's marketing decision, feel a lot like an island reversal too... - kisa

#3 dcengr

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 07:31 PM

The decline on the Qs started to resemble to an island reversal now, nobody mentioned about it, so I thought it is worth to point out. The psychology of the quick rally on the Apple news and the subsequent disappointment in many tech issues, and in fact the sinking feeling about Apple's marketing decision, feel a lot like an island reversal too...

- kisa


The character of that rally actually felt a lot like a B wave... a sucker rally. It was done on crappy breadth, and it was odd-lot orgy as everyone bought into AAPL.

So.. if that was a B wave, and we're on a C wave.. then I dunno. C waves usually retrace B waves completely, and often 1.6xB waves.

If we assume B wave rally started at 42.50, and ended at 45.50, then its $3. $3x1.6 = $4.80. So $4.80 from the top at 45.50 = 40.70.

That would be a typical C wave retracing a B wave, according to EWT.
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#4 arbman

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 07:54 PM

I think it was more of a 5th wave type and this is the wave-a or wave-1. The pessimism is not rising much at this juncture and the bottom picking will show up in the days ahead for a wave-b or wave-2, imho. It might manage to push the senior diversified indices to the higher highs probably. I am not very hopeful about the NDX though, perhaps it closes the gap or double top at best, we will see. For what it is worth, I find the sentiment going through the roof for what the market is telling me, I am reflecting my own sentiment here as well since I fully expect a strong end of month rally for no apparent reason... - kisa