Edited by CLK, 30 January 2007 - 02:54 PM.
Three peaks question
#1
Posted 30 January 2007 - 02:53 PM
#2
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:08 PM
Anybody know the exit targeted measurement on shorting
a " 3 peaks and domed house" formation ?
Is it well below the 3 peaks area ?
I have been hearing about this 3 peaks formation for the last three years. The peaks only keep moving higher and higher. IMHO it's a waste of time analyzing something so unreliable.
Can anyone show me a real life example of 3 peaks and domed house occurence in the stock market ?
Edited by NAV, 30 January 2007 - 03:09 PM.
#3
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:10 PM
The price objective is the starting point of the pattern (see chart below...February was the starting point).Anybody know the exit targeted measurement on shorting a " 3 peaks and domed house" formation ?
Fib
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GASO&p=D&st=2006-01-01&i=p71939202156&a=83667613&r=17.png
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#4
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:15 PM
Just looking for a short.
#5
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:16 PM
#6
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:19 PM
JV
#7
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:29 PM
Anything less than a daily time frame is questionable for this kind of pattern to take place and it rarely, if ever, takes place in the equity markets because of it being the main focus of the masses.I thought this looked close, but maybe not.
It's a reliable pattern - it has it's rules as many patterns do - it's just analysts misinterpretations of this same pattern, and its rules, that are the problem.I have been hearing about this 3 peaks formation for the last three years. The peaks only keep moving higher and higher. IMHO it's a waste of time analyzing something so unreliable.
Here's another one, though a bit on a sloppy side because of political influences, but it also reached the price objective of the pattern in spite of such anomalies.
Fib
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&st=2006-01-01&i=p71939202156&a=96465674&r=5947.png
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#8
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:34 PM
Anything less than a daily time frame is questionable for this kind of pattern to take place and it rarely, if ever, takes place in the equity markets because of it being the main focus of the masses.I thought this looked close, but maybe not.
It's a reliable pattern - it has it's rules as many patterns do - it's just analysts misinterpretations of this same pattern, and its rules, that are the problem.I have been hearing about this 3 peaks formation for the last three years. The peaks only keep moving higher and higher. IMHO it's a waste of time analyzing something so unreliable.
Here's another one, though a bit on a sloppy side because of political influences, but it also reached the price objective of the pattern in spite of such anomalies.
Fib
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&st=2006-01-01&i=p71939202156&a=96465674&r=5947.png
Fib,
Can you show me one occurence of three peaks and domed house pattern on DOW or SPX over the last 100 years ?
#9
Posted 30 January 2007 - 03:41 PM
Be Sure to Perform Your Own Due Diligence
#10
Posted 30 January 2007 - 04:18 PM
Well, I could, but to show such a pattern in the Dow or SPX I would probably have to go back about 20 or 30 years to dig a clean one up (the early 1970's was the last one I believe, and then the early 1960's) and I don't have the data handy to show. However, when it comes to individual stocks, you can find the pattern more readily, but even then, it's still a challenge.Can you show me one occurrence of three peaks and domed house pattern on DOW or SPX over the last 100 years ?
Overall, it's a rare pattern (the recent one with gasoline was the first one I've seen in a long while), and it's more than likely you'll only see such a pattern turn up in more thinly traded futures related price patterns than that of the equity markets because of the cyclical emotional element that creates such patterns to begin with. But at the same time, the equity markets do tend to make rounded tops and spike bottoms, so I'm sure there are many rounded top patterns over the last 30 years, but not with the 3 peaks pattern before this same "domed" top (no less the couple of other factors that would create this same price pattern).
Just my personal experience - maybe someone else could provide one after the 1974 bottom to answer NAV's challenge?
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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