4 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the sum of the cyclic trends remains up. new all time highs and closes on V line, SP mid. more to come.

[NAV]

I agree !

[denleo]

The only question is whether there will be a dip on the FED announcement or not. New highs are very close in time regardless of tomorrow's action. Denleo

[kc135a]

the sum of the cyclic trends remains up. new all time highs and closes on V line, SP mid. more to come.

Thank you for you contributions. Your work is an important tie breaker to my own analysis when times get interesting.

FWIW, the below are my projections for the next tops followed by a significant reversal (historically about 8%) down. The method has a 75% success rate over the last 4 years. The one time it failed, the markets kept rallying well beyond the anticipated pivot high date.

The projected pivot high dates are historically accurate +- 2 trading days with one time missing by 4 trading days and were established October of 2006 with no intermittent pattern violations.

DOW: 02/09 Range 12650-13015
NDX: 02/13 Range 1845-1945, Note 1845 has already been achieved
SPX: 02/14 Range 1455-1487

Typically the DOW and SPX are within 1 day of each other making the 5 day spread unusual.

If the above plays out, then the next cycle low dates should be lower lows, not higher lows.

Again, thank you for your steady and quite reliable analysis.

KC

[airedale88]

kc, thnx for the comments. your projections are in line with the Hurst current model. a top some time in feb, followed by a decline into a late march nominal 20 wk low. the model then calls for a rally off that low, how strong or weak can't be estimated currently, then a decline into the important 4.5 yr low june/july area. at this point in the 4.5 yr cycle, one would normally expect the march 20 wk cycle low to be a lower low.