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Soft Landing


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#11 arbman

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 01:52 PM

There is no resistance. If it's touched, the bulls own it. 9305.59 is now bull property.


There is nothing but resistance above here... :)

- kisa

#12 fib_1618

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 02:28 PM

Fib, the RUT, SML, MID underperformed the rally and barely made to the new highs while the large caps blasted higher, I don't take them as the leading indicators. They are the gimmick imho, so this makes many breath measures also much less reliable on this run up. The worst bear market happened probably while the breath turned up and led higher during 2001-2003.

Cyclically, I can not track the way you guys are tracking anymore because my model changes with the changes in the frequencies. But my guess is there's the 4.5 yr broad market low lining up for the summer in my model, its pressure will probably increase from here. The longer term 9yr and up cycles are turning and supporting the market though so I expect the declines or the total correction to be a trading range to 10-12% max by the final lows, perhaps similar to 2004. I don't expect a crash, but the markets are irrational...

BTW, this previous 4yr cycle low felt like an induced low to break the backbone of the commodity speculation than a real buying depletion to me, now looking back at it. I actually expected the buying to be exhausted around the late last summer, the operators knew what the people were looking for back then and buying the calls in the commodities and especially gold, I mentioned about it here days before the break down. The reversal from the lows has been also phenomenal with everyone caught up with the upside down seasonal pattern and fueled with the blow ups in the commodity heavy funds...

The liquidity available for investing from the public is peanuts for this market, imho. The real investment and growth comes from the commercial borrowing and longer term economic outlook and its compounding effect. I don't see this improving as I posted here numerous times at the moment by looking at both the liquidity outlook or the growth sectors. So, I remain bearish for the intermediate term...

- kisa

Thank you for the detailed response.

The funny thing is I used to think along the lines you've outlined, but you do learn things over the years that make much of what you've shared having very little to do with the stock market and its ability to rally and decline. Unfortunately though, it would take a rather lengthy post to pour over these same differences that I've already have shared off and on over the last 4 years here at Traders-Talk, so you'll have to forgive me for not taking the baton and running with it.

But what I will say is that the markets are not irrational, far be it. They may seem to be chaotic, but rest assured that there is rational order to all of this. For most, however, this realization doesn't make much sense until after the market has already discounted any or all of these same fundamental inconsistencies. A good example of which has been the rally of the last 6 months of 2006 where only now are we finding out why all of the index's rallied anywhere from 10-15% in value.

The beauty of technical analysis is that it's a direct way to cheat the fundamental condition of the economy some 4-6 months out in time as money flows in advance of the facts. This is why it's far better to just follow the money and save the questions for those who may wish to continue to worry about such things, and sadly, lose out on much of what the market has to offer as far as capital appreciation.

Fib

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#13 spielchekr

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 03:02 PM

There is no resistance. If it's touched, the bulls own it. 9305.59 is now bull property.


There is nothing but resistance above here... :)

- kisa

Nothing until 9461.25. C'mon and take a free ride.

#14 arbman

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 03:24 PM

The beauty of technical analysis is that it's a direct way to cheat the fundamental condition of the economy some 4-6 months out in time as money flows in advance of the facts. This is why it's far better to just follow the money and save the questions for those who may wish to continue to worry about such things, and sadly, lose out on much of what the market has to offer as far as capital appreciation.


Fib, I thank you too, but don't worry I did very well for myself in 2006 despite fighting the uptrend last Sep, I was able to get them all back in Nov through Dec. Of course, you'd better know it wrong and come out winning, but the fundamentals have little to do with my trading anyway. Don't you think the overweighting in the tech in 2000, housing in 2003-2004, or commodities in 2006 were irrational? Pleeaaase! :)

#15 spielchekr

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 06:28 PM

The landing came and went long ago.

Welcome to another acceleration phase where the recent debate on third waves will likely be put to rest.

Fib





BTW, the one you're thinking of was like 4 or so soft landings ago. I was refering to the current one. :D

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