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Soft Landing


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#1 spielchekr

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 03:22 PM

Me and my avatar are ready now.

#2 fib_1618

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 03:36 PM

The landing came and went long ago. Welcome to another acceleration phase where the recent debate on third waves will likely be put to rest. Fib

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#3 denleo

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 03:40 PM

Fib, What do you think of NASDAQ here? Buy on today's close? Thanks Denleo

#4 fib_1618

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 03:57 PM

What do you think of NASDAQ here? Buy on today's close?

As of yesterdays data, the NASDAQ still has a little more work to do before I would switch to long.

However, the SML was leading today's breakout, and today we have new all time highs on the SML, RUT, MID, VLE so we're back in sync again.

So, I'll just have to wait to see how we settle today. I'll make mention of it in the chat tonight and you can review the transcripts tomorrow if you're not able to join us later.

Fib

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#5 spielchekr

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 06:17 PM

It could very well be that internals (like cumulative A/D) will finally lead price now. And with a number like 66666, who wants to argue? :D

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#6 arbman

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 06:27 PM

Fib, what's the difference in between the last May's new highs in RUT, dismal performance in NDX and the marginal new highs of the SPX and DJIs? In my opinion nothing, actually it is worse now since the high in last May was clearly made by the excess liquidity, while this one is barely made due to the depleting liquidity in my measures. I remain bearish for the intermediate term, although I can see the current short term momentum carrying on for a few more days or even a week or two into Feb, unless of course the market gives us another Slamma Jamma... - kisa

#7 eminimee

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 07:28 PM

a weekly close over 674 oex and I'll give up my "correction imminent" thoughts.. gee...wait...have I said that before. ggg I'm looking forward to a 3 of 3 of 3 starting from the 615/620 area

Edited by Teaparty, 31 January 2007 - 07:29 PM.


#8 fib_1618

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 10:24 PM

Fib, what's the difference in between the last May's new highs in RUT, dismal performance in NDX and the marginal new highs of the SPX and DJIs?

The biggest difference? The 4 year cycle.

Second place? The 9 month cycle.

Other differences?

New all time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD.

Higher MCSUM highs than that of last May with no divergences as yet.

Basing price pattern structures just completed on the RUT, SML, MID, and more than likely, the NDX and COMPQ.

General intermediate term price pattern structures showing bottoms above bottoms and the angle of ascent.

There are others.

In my opinion nothing, actually it is worse now since the high in last May was clearly made by the excess liquidity, while this one is barely made due to the depleting liquidity in my measures.

Well, you don't mention what kind of liquidity you're referring to, but the liquidity that really counts in all this, money that's available for investment, has been continuing to increase since 2001 with no sign of decay. To be candid, if the last 45 days of corrective action hasn't at least made you consider this, I don't know what will.

I remain bearish for the intermediate term, although I can see the current short term momentum carrying on for a few more days or even a week or two into Feb.

That's entirely possible at this stage. As always, its up to the markets participants to provide the conviction that will be needed to push higher from here. The next week or so will tell the tale in this area....either we top out in February and chop around into the next 9 month cycle nesting in March/April, or we "slamma jamma" higher and have a quick correction into this same bottom that will look like a blip on the longer term charts.

Fib

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#9 arbman

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 11:43 AM

Fib, the RUT, SML, MID underperformed the rally and barely made to the new highs while the large caps blasted higher, I don't take them as the leading indicators. They are the gimmick imho, so this makes many breath measures also much less reliable on this run up. The worst bear market happened probably while the breath turned up and led higher during 2001-2003. Cyclically, I can not track the way you guys are tracking anymore because my model changes with the changes in the frequencies. But my guess is there's the 4.5 yr broad market low lining up for the summer in my model, its pressure will probably increase from here. The longer term 9yr and up cycles are turning and supporting the market though so I expect the declines or the total correction to be a trading range to 10-12% max by the final lows, perhaps similar to 2004. I don't expect a crash, but the markets are irrational... BTW, this previous 4yr cycle low felt like an induced low to break the backbone of the commodity speculation than a real buying depletion to me, now looking back at it. I actually expected the buying to be exhausted around the late last summer, the operators knew what the people were looking for back then and buying the calls in the commodities and especially gold, I mentioned about it here days before the break down. The reversal from the lows has been also phenomenal with everyone caught up with the upside down seasonal pattern and fueled with the blow ups in the commodity heavy funds... The liquidity available for investing from the public is peanuts for this market, imho. The real investment and growth comes from the commercial borrowing and longer term economic outlook and its compounding effect. I don't see this improving as I posted here numerous times at the moment by looking at both the liquidity outlook or the growth sectors. So, I remain bearish for the intermediate term... - kisa

#10 spielchekr

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 01:01 PM

There is no resistance. If it's touched, the bulls own it. 9305.59 is now bull property.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p21491008167&a=95622208&r=5972.png