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IBD---The Big Picture


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#1 tuffy88

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 06:01 PM

Status report on the current open position in account following the IBD system. I said I would continue posting trades in real time as I have been doing here for almost 4 years following the IBD system. Current trade open since mid August, 2006. Bought 3000 shares of QQQQ on 8/16/06: Paid $37.95. Closed today at $44.06. Now up 16.23%. Plus have collected 1 dividend of $169.50. Bought 900 shares of SPY on 9/13/06: Paid $131.70. Closed today at $143.75. Now up 10.23%. Plus have collected 2 dividends totaling $1237.93. Have done no buying or selling except those 2 buys since August. No trading just sitting and watching. Both trades were posted here in real time as all the other trades using this system have been for almost 4 years posted here at the time I bought them and sold them. Not going tp review them now, but anyone who is interested can check them out. I have also posted my methodoligy. Anyone interested can also check that out. Will close out and exit when I get a sell signal. Will post that trade here in real time when I make it. Have no idea when that signal will come. Currently 2 distribution days on Nasdaq and 3 on the S&P500. The sell signal will be when there are 5 distribution days within a 4 week period. I let the market tell me when to buy & sell. I never instruct the market to do anything. I never anticipate what it will do. When I get the signal I follow it. Period. Leaving on vacation for 9 days cruise Friday. Will monitor trade from the Carribean. Hope we don't get a sell signal, but will act on it if we do. I know my method makes many here very angry, but at least I don't just talk the talk. I also walk the walk. But I said I would post in real time until I got an exit on this last trade, and I will. As to when that exit signal will be I have no idea at all. Charles

#2 kemo1k

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 07:02 PM

I admire your style. Would you ever consider using the qld instead of qqqq?

#3 tuffy88

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 07:21 PM

kemo 1k Never have traded gold(GLD). Don't think it could be traded with the IBD method. I think you would have to trade something that moved with the general market. Gold & other stocks do not move together. Charles

#4 Gary Smith

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 08:33 PM

I let the market tell me when to buy & sell. I never instruct the market to do anything. I never anticipate what it will do. When I get the signal I follow it. Period.

I know my method makes many here very angry, but at least I don't just talk the talk. I also walk the walk. But I said I would post in real time until I got an exit on this last trade, and I will. As to when that exit signal will be I have no idea at all.

Charles


Over the past 8 months of steadily rising prices at a pace almost unseen in NYSE history ( A 137 day stretch without a 2% decline in the Dow) where all I've seen have been provocative posts of imminent crashes and corrections and the top is in, along with a dizzying array of go long, go short, go flat then rinse and repeat, you Sir Charles have been a true breath of fresh air. This board could use more of your ilk. Enjoy your vacation.

#5 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 09:15 PM

[quote name='tuffy88' post='269249' date='Jan 31 2007, 07:01 PM']
I let the market tell me when to buy & sell. I never instruct the market to do anything. I never anticipate what it will do. When I get the signal I follow it. Period.

I know my method makes many here very angry, but at least I don't just talk the talk. I also walk the walk. But I said I would post in real time until I got an exit on this last trade, and I will. As to when that exit signal will be I have no idea at all.

Charles
[quote]

i don't think its your method that makes some here angry, rather your contempt for the more active traders. If via the use of some leverage and skill a "trader" is able to eek out 90-200%, i don't see the harm in it., although 10-15% is nothing to sneeze at. The irony here is that if everyone traded your system, this board would not exist for you to shower us with your delightful contempt.
*previously known as pnfwave

#6 tuffy88

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 10:11 PM

Gary---Thanks for the kind words. I guess I don't try to predict where the market is going because I don't think I can. Don't really think anyone can. And I do favor the long side because it is the winner more than 50% of the time. Like playing with house odds. I have learned to watch high yield bonds from reading your posts. I think you are right. They may signal a recession in advance if they start to weaken. And while they remain strong a recession is not just around the corner. Have not yet figured out how to apply that knowledge in trading. And good luck with your high yeald bonds. Charles

#7 dasein

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 11:06 PM

Never have traded gold(GLD). Gold & other stocks do not move together.

Charles

Hi, Charles,

I think 1K meant the QLD, which is a leveraged QQQQ, dont know if it double or what - but it is not GLD.

Thanks for posting, your perserverence is excellent, but I suppose a lot of people here are traders, and they want to trade swings, which as Hurst among others observed, can multiply profits extraordinarily.

I think the board has the same problem as email - there is no intonation, so it is easy for people to misunderstand - as we see today here with PNF, and with Hank and UFO, and Senor on the gold board. A lot of traders have "egos" - you need a bigger ego to withstand the solitary aspect of trading, and trading seems to make you look over your shoulder at every little noise (metaphor). So I would suggest that everyone should relax & just let things ride a little. If you think you should take offense at someone's post, try to read the post again a couple of times and see if there isnt some way it could have been meant as a neutral statement, not a hit against you. And even if you decide it is a slight, well, you might take it up off the boards, using the PM = since its not nice to have to go thru dirty laundry to get to the TA.

best to all,

klh
best,
klh

#8 mmm

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 11:13 PM

I see what you mean Charles by angry traders that hate your posts by the comments just posted above you. I am an active trader and wish you the best of luck and please keep posting. Thanks for all the time and effort and wisdom you have shared with us. Dennis

#9 vitaminm

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 11:28 PM

SPY,QQQQ, QLD=2xQQQQ, SSO=2xSPY

PRHYX.........YTD Return*: 9.75%
Net Assets*: 3.81B
Yield*: 7.33%

* As of 31-Dec-06




http://finance.yahoo...QQQ P...0&a=&c=
vitaminm

#10 Gary Smith

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 12:01 AM

SPY,QQQQ, QLD=2xQQQQ, SSO=2xSPY

PRHYX.........YTD Return*: 9.75%
Net Assets*: 3.81B
Yield*: 7.33%

* As of 31-Dec-06




http://finance.yahoo...QQQ P...0&a=&c=


vitaminm, PRHYX is the standard bearer for the open end junk bond market, although I believe it is closed to new investors. But if you want to high power your junk portfolio the closed end funds far outstrip the returns of the open end funds. The junk standard bearer for the closed end junk market is DSU which returned 30% last year. I actually sold some junk today because the cash junk market has been a bit sloppy this week and I needed to free up some monies in case I need to continue increasing my stock positions. I've increased for five consecutive days now but this tidbit from the tickersense.com site is not very comforting as apparently there is a 71% chance the market will be down over the next week.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/