Jump to content



Photo

Commodities and emerging markets


  • Please log in to reply
6 replies to this topic

#1 jawndissedi

jawndissedi

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,018 posts

Posted 10 February 2007 - 08:44 PM

It appears to me that the equities are leading the CRB? Is this how you read it? Does that make sense to you?

Posted Image
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.

#2 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,144 posts

Posted 10 February 2007 - 09:09 PM

No, commodities lead equities....check the chart again as to the offset in what moved first and then after from the 2001/2002 lows. Excess liquidity filters from Gold to Commodities to Debt to Equities, and it generally takes about 18 months to go from one end of the asset spectrum to the other. Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#3 Sentient Being

Sentient Being

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,262 posts

Posted 11 February 2007 - 08:52 AM

Excess liquidity filters from Gold to Commodities to Debt to Equities, and it generally takes about 18 months to go from one end of the asset spectrum to the other.

Fib


Does "debt" in your context include bonds?

Edited by Sentient Being, 11 February 2007 - 08:52 AM.

In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#4 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,144 posts

Posted 11 February 2007 - 09:37 AM



Excess liquidity filters from Gold to Commodities to Debt to Equities, and it generally takes about 18 months to go from one end of the asset spectrum to the other.

Fib


Does "debt" in your context include bonds?

Yes, it includes all debt obligations both public and private.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#5 Sentient Being

Sentient Being

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,262 posts

Posted 11 February 2007 - 10:00 AM

Thanks Fib. Lately I've been trying to get a grasp of some of these issues.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#6 jawndissedi

jawndissedi

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,018 posts

Posted 11 February 2007 - 11:23 AM

No, commodities lead equities....check the chart again as to the offset in what moved first and then after from the 2001/2002 lows.

Excess liquidity filters from Gold to Commodities to Debt to Equities, and it generally takes about 18 months to go from one end of the asset spectrum to the other.

Fib

So if the CRB entered a bear market (down >25%) about eight months ago, would this be a good time to short EEM?
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.

#7 jonbear

jonbear

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 64 posts

Posted 11 February 2007 - 10:22 PM

FWIW, The article at the link below discusses the issue of whether true breakdown in the CRB index occurred or just a reflection of the recent composition shifts in the CRB index.

http://www.safehaven...rticle-6881.htm




No, commodities lead equities....check the chart again as to the offset in what moved first and then after from the 2001/2002 lows.

Excess liquidity filters from Gold to Commodities to Debt to Equities, and it generally takes about 18 months to go from one end of the asset spectrum to the other.

Fib

So if the CRB entered a bear market (down >25%) about eight months ago, would this be a good time to short EEM?