scroll down a bit to NDX chart...who is to know whether it will breakout above upper channel line or fail?
Thanks Hiker for the post. If NDX breaks out above the line, who is to know whether it is a breakout or fakeout? You see, market can always keep one on his toes, if he looks at only one line for his make or break decision such as what Tim presented. In any case, I have seen his blog, but do not like it. He is always too bearish, and reads every chart in a bearish manner. I like bullish blogs or chats. People, who have opposite opinion from me help me to think more. So, please send me more bullish links, like the chats of Fib.
I am looking at the following charts for tomorrow:
TLT, after breaking out, is now testing its broken trendline. If it bounces back, we know that bonds are going to rise now (and that may lead to some stock weakness as well). Otherwise, I am worried.
In this chart, MACD back-kissed and fell. So, the high-probability direction is down. Will see if it continues as well.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX:$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t11086088507&r=2162&.png
This one also reversed. Weakness ahead?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUO:$RLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t11086088507&r=2162&.png
Bottom or top? To me it seems like more weakness ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDXA50R:$NAA50R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t39740160077&r=3686&.png
What else? VXN has a gap above. VXN usually closes its gaps in 2-3 days. Because of yesterday's unfilled gap below, I was not bearish for today. Now there is a gap above, so I presume the default move for VXN is up, unless proven otherwise.
TRINQ is rising for few months. Check its 20EMA.
Also, I look at about 15 or 20 components of NDX everyday. They all look broken or on the verge of breaking down, except ROST. MICC, one of the top percentage gainers for last three years, is hanging on the trendline by a thread. It has the best risk-reward setup for a ST 4-5% move.