A Bernanke Surprise ???
#1
Posted 14 February 2007 - 10:47 AM
#2
Posted 14 February 2007 - 10:49 AM
#3
Posted 14 February 2007 - 11:13 AM
Very strange... USD and Long term rates are going down together, the commodities are flat for the week and not much movement for the day. I am not sure this scenario can end very well. You have short term inflation from the USD which is boosting the stocks, a long term slow down forecast by the bonds. It is not clear whether the commodity prices are stable because of an impending slow down or increased supply...
What will the Fed do?
- kisa
#4
Posted 14 February 2007 - 11:15 AM
#5
Posted 14 February 2007 - 11:25 AM
"The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information."What will the Fed do?
Nothings changed...Bernake is making that very clear in his testimony this morning.
And if nothings changed, the market has continued clarity.
Clarity, in this case, is more money driving prices higher.
Fib
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#6
Posted 14 February 2007 - 11:37 AM
#7
Posted 14 February 2007 - 12:53 PM
The 4 year low already passed last August, and the interest rate A/D lines continue to suggest stability in current rates.If the stocks go lower into the 4.5 yr low and the Fed lowers the rates
Not necessarily.So a further decline in the USD would not be bullish...
Fib
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=M&st=1985-01-01&i=p58522282883&a=98120792&r=602.png
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#8
Posted 14 February 2007 - 12:55 PM
Edited by pdx5, 14 February 2007 - 12:58 PM.
#9
Posted 14 February 2007 - 01:06 PM
The 4 year low already passed last August, and the interest rate A/D lines continue to suggest stability in current rates.If the stocks go lower into the 4.5 yr low and the Fed lowers the rates
Not necessarily.So a further decline in the USD would not be bullish...
The 4 yr low and the 4.5 yr low are not the same cyclicals...
The USD is hugging the bottom of the range, don't be so confident that it will justify for the foreigners to hold the US equities if they slip lower. So far, the USD depreciated from the record highs over the past 6-7 yrs, it is time to bottom. In other words, you are worth as much as your money, too much depreciation in the currency is never good...
The labor market and the service jobs are the last to run, if they peaked, this cycle also peaked and the economy will not turn around before a good correction and lower rates. I don't believe the service sector will see a substantial damage, so I don't expect the massive lay offs like 2001-2002, instead just a low and more monetary stimulus, mostly for the housing...
- kisa
#10
Posted 14 February 2007 - 01:32 PM
Difference please? (Just so you know, the current 4 year cycle used to be the 4.5 year cycle prior to 1982 where it began to contract.)The 4 yr low and the 4.5 yr low are not the same cyclicals...
Maybe you're missing the point of what would cause the Dollar to decline while seeing US equities advance. Any thoughts?The USD is hugging the bottom of the range, don't be so confident that it will justify for the foreigners to hold the US equities if they slip lower.
How is then we can have virtually full employment in the United States based on a large percentage of "service jobs"?The labor market and the service jobs are the last to run, if they peaked, this cycle also peaked and the economy will not turn around before a good correction and lower rates.
All this fundamentalism is starting to give me a headache.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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