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Now that everyone is all Bulled up...


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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 06:17 PM

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Must the those "five guys who control Wall Street" just selling every top. Today on stronger volume we fail to make a new high or even test the two high volume highs @2496... AND, once again we're under the volume of 1/18 of 2.5B... Every time so far we get over that 1/18 high we come right back down and test lower within a day or two. Maybe the bulls will find the volume they need to push higher, but it's not a good bet, is it? Why is it going to be DIFFERENT this time???

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 February 2007 - 06:18 PM.

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#2 denleo

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 06:32 PM

I don't think it is going to be much different. We will easily go up on low volume to keep small traders away from participating, and some will even short this thing. Denleo

#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 06:43 PM

I don't think it is going to be much different. We will easily go up on low volume to keep small traders away from participating, and some will even short this thing.
Denleo





Sounds good, used to work in the fall, but that's not what is going on now, volume at the highs, volume off the top...
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#4 arbman

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 07:21 PM

Some issues get slaughtered, some issues blow off...
Looks like a typical February ahead of March...

Posted Image


- kisa

#5 slupert

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 08:45 PM

Some issues get slaughtered, some issues blow off...
Looks like a typical February ahead of March...

Posted Image


- kisa


Intense chart! remind me never to look at your charts when I'm doing 'shrooms. :blink:

#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 09:12 PM

Some issues get slaughtered, some issues blow off...
Looks like a typical February ahead of March...

Posted Image


- kisa


Intense chart! remind me never to look at your charts when I'm doing 'shrooms. :blink:

Are these the maps for a tropical strom? :lol:

#7 jjc

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 09:32 PM


Ok. 1) How do I read it? 2)Where is the data from?

#8 arbman

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 10:10 PM

This is the distribution of the average volatility over the course of a year per month for a position bought and held for 20 days over the past 30 years. This is from my own dbase. I didn't post the actual bell curve of the distribution, but most of the volatility is in between -0.1 to 0.1 (that's 10%). This is normal because the market rarely moves up and down more than a few percent per month and the volatility at the edges of the chart is all over the place.

So, for example, if you buy a position in March, you are most likely to loose going into April, or if you purchase a position in Oct, you are more likely to make money going into the Dec. The bulk of the gains are in between Nov and Feb. Some of the positions opened in Feb usually peak in March or some of them start to drop earlier before a March correction.

Here are the simpler versions, so if you buy any stock to ride until a top that usually occurs in March, the odds are not all that on your side. It is more so in Oct going into Nov...

Posted Image


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- kisa

#9 pdx5

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Posted 14 February 2007 - 11:42 PM

I love that last chart showing gains and losses during each month. Except 2006 did not follow the normal seasonal pattern. The first chart has so much color, it reminded of my kids coloring books at age 5 LOL.
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#10 arbman

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 05:35 AM

Here are the distributions of about 1 million daily trades I looked into, the research does not include 2006. Notice it is logarithmic, so your odds of finding out of ordinary trades of +/- 5% is pretty slim within a month...

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- kisa